臺灣地區稻米公私有庫存之分析

On Public and Private Rice Stock Holdings in Taiwan

今年初米價暴漲，上漲幅度為近年來僅見，引起了社會大眾極大的關切，也突顯出公、私有庫存的推估與掌控的重要。公有庫存的收撥有一定的程序，較易掌控，至於掌握在糧商與農民手中的私有庫存則不易估算。本文比較文獻中有關臺灣地區稻米私有庫存量的推估方法，並加以改進，透過稻米需求面月別資料的推估，求算各月份稻米私有庫存量，並對公私有庫存相對變動及穩定性加以分析，期有助於政府對民間存糧數量與流向的掌握，俾以建立稻米安全存糧的收撥制度，確保我國的糧食安全。有關公私有庫存變動，經本文的分析，年中庫存量之波動情形因稻米產業的特有結構通常大於年底庫存量之變動，總庫存量歷年頗穩定，但公私有庫存之結構有很大的變化。由公私有庫存變動的分析亦可看出，我國稻米政策降低私人庫存意願，使得糧源流向公有庫存，形成政府一大財政負擔。

The recent dramatic price increase in rice has drawn lots of concerns and has also brought into focus the importance of on-line monitoring of public and private holdings of Taiwan's rice stock. In contrast to conventional approach, this paper uses monthly data and improves the method in estimating the rice stock hlodings. Stability and structural changes in public and private rice hlodings are analyzed. It is found that fluctuations in mid-year rice stock are more volatile than those in end-year stock. Moreover, rice program has reduced the incentives of private holders and farmers. The public sector has been forced to accumulate the increasing rice stock residual and therefore incurs lots of budget deficit burden.