九二共識的變遷與延續：從新制度主義到論述制度論的觀點解析

hange and Continuity in the 1992 Consensus: From New Institutionalism to Discursive Institutionalism

近年來，九二共識在兩岸關係中扮演著重要角色；不僅實質影響著兩岸關係的互動與發展，亦成為選舉期間各政黨相互競逐的議題場域。但事實上，1992年兩岸香港會談並未以九二共識此一名詞來說明當年的會議結論，此一名稱是到了2000年4月時才被前陸委會主委蘇起所創造。順此，本文欲回答的主要研究問題為：九二共識是如何從一個被創造出來的政策新名詞，逐漸地獲取合法性與制度化功能？以及如何成為2008年後成為馬英九政府兩岸關係政策之政治基礎？以及，吾人該如何解釋九二共識之論述與制度化機制過程？本文以制度主義的觀點依序梳理了傳統新制度主義的觀點，以及在這些觀點下所進行之兩岸關係與九二共識研究成果，並指出既有之傳統新制度主義理論在研究成果上所面臨的困難。順此，為了彌充傳統新制度主義理論的不足，本文運用論述制度論（Discursive Institutionalism）為分析架構，藉以說明九二共識的變遷與延續問題。本文研究發現，九二共識發展至今至少經過三階段的論述與制度化互動過程，包括：(1)2000至2005年「九二共識論述與制度建構期」、(2)2005至2008年「九二共識論述與制度擴散期」、(3)2008至2016年「九二共識制度化與路徑依賴期」。每一個階段中，政策行動者皆運用不同的論述策略，使九二共識的制度化成效在不同階段中有著不同特質之展現。

The aim of this paper is to understand the processes by which the 1992 Consensus became institutionalized, evolving from a new policy discourse into a political foundation for Cross-Strait relations. The paper adopts Discursive Institutionalism (DI) as a theoretical framework to analyze these institutionalizing processes. Before 2000, the term ‘1992 Consensus’ did not exist; the Kuomintang (KMT) government official Su Chi created this new policy concept in April 2000. However, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) took power in May 2000. How did the 1992 Consensus become institutionalized when the central government was controlled by a party that rejected the concept? DI theory provides a useful approach to explain the processes by which a new policy discourse can be institutionalized in the political arena. This article will analyze how KMT political actors utilized the KMT-CCP forum as a fundamental structure to establish various mechanisms for propagating the 1992 Consensus concept among political elites on both sides of the Strait and among the Taiwanese public. The forum served as a catalyst for the PRC government to adopt the 1992 consensus at the end of 2005 and for institutionalization of the consensus as the political foundation of Cross-Strait policy in the Ma Ying-Jeou era after 2008. This article divides the development process of the 1992 Consensus into three time periods: discourse and institution construction (2000-2005), discourse and institution diffusion (2005-2008), and discourse and institution path dependency (2008-2016). The different periods show the various characteristics of discourse and political power relationships. The article suggests that DI theory can fill the gaps in the New Institutionalism research literature.