伊朗核政策分析：現實主義論的觀點

An Analysis of Iran’s Nuclear Policy: from Realism Perspectives

本文在透過現實主義的角度，對於伊朗是否發展核武進行理論的剖析。本文研究發現，守勢、攻勢及新古典現實主義在不同時空背景下，各自對伊朗內賈德政府之強硬政策或羅哈尼政府時期之和解政策具有解釋力；此外，守勢現實主義忽視國內政經因素，故其預測能力不如攻勢現實主義與新古典現實主義，其中新古典現實主義提出在政府政績不佳、溫和派失勢或軍方執意秘密發展等前提下，伊朗將製造核彈之蠡測，較攻勢現實主義更為嚴謹。

his study tries to look into the issue of whether Iran is developing nuclear weapons from a theoretical point of view from the realism theory. Under different circumstances, the defensive, offensive and neoclassical realist points of view can explain Iran’s assertive or reconciliatory nuclear policies under the rule of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or President Hassan Rouhani. In addition, given the fact that the defensive realism neglects domestic factories, the defensive realism cannot provide assessment concerning Iran’s nuclear ambition, both the offensive realism and neoclassical realism can predict Iran’s nuclear policy future. The neoclassical realism points out that Iran could ultimately produce nuclear weapons, if the Rouhani government’s bad achievement, moderate political force’s losing power or the military’s secretly developing nuclear bombs is real. This point highlights that the neoclassical realism’s prediction is stricter than the offensive realism.