「一帶一路」的發軔：隱喻式的國家發展策略初探

How China’s Belt and Road Initiative Evolved: Exploring The Metaphorical National Development Strategy

自2013年，中國陸續提出「絲綢之路經濟帶」和「21世紀海上絲綢之路」，而成「一帶一路」的概念以來，涉及的領域廣泛跨越國際關係，與其他社會科學學門，引起各界關注其內涵與目的。本文嘗試以政策的發展脈絡、地緣格局和非政治因素探討「一帶一路」可能的發軔背景，由於其延續性和跨領域的格局，中國官方雖不明言「一帶一路」為戰略，但隱喻中國當代的國家發展策略於其中。本文發現「一帶一路」延續中國的「走出去」，和西方稱謂之「珍珠鏈」戰略，東面應對美國的「亞洲樞奴」，西面與美俄兩國形成「兩大一超」格局，以文化與超軍事能力達成其「五通三同」的目標。

n 2013, China began promoting the concepts of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, now commonly referred to jointly as the Belt and Road (B & R) Initiative. The initiative relates to a broad range of disciplines within the social sciences and its implications and goals have been a focus of academic research. This paper explores the origins of the initiative, looking at the evolution of related policies, the geopolitical environment and non-political factors. Although China’s government has not explicitly called the Belt and Road Initiative a strategy, it has become a metaphor for Beijing’s national development strategy. The paper finds that the Belt and Road Initiative is a continuation of China’s “going out” strategy and of what is referred to in the West as Beijing’s “string of pearls” strategy. Geostrategically, it is a response to the US “pivot to Asia” to China’s east and to triangular US-Russia-China strategic relations to its west. The initiative seeks to use culture and non-military capabilities to achieve Beijing’s goal of “five flows and three joints.”