英文摘要 |
This study thus investigates the spatial dependence of crop yieldsand losses caused by natural disasters to analyze potential systemic riskin Taiwan. The study takes a spatial statistics approach to conducting anexploratory time-space data analysis for understanding spatialdependence patterns of crop yields and losses at both the county and thetownship level. Crops are classified into four groups: rice, fruits,vegetables, and all crops. Three spatial aspects will be analyzed,including (1) extent of spatial dependence of crop yields and losses overthe entire region, as a predictor of the magnitude of aggregated systemicrisk in the region; (2) geographic hotspots of highly correlated crop yieldsand losses, which identify the locations in the region under significantsystemic risks; (3) the rate of spatial dependence decay over space, toexplore how to bound geographic areas for effective risk pooling. Theresults show certain degree of the overall spatial dependence in cropyields at both the county and township level. In addition to steadyaggregated systemic risk in crop yields, the clustered hotspots of cropyields are distributed similarly over time and space. On the other hand,the aggregated systemic risk of crop losses is highly fluctuated over time at the county level, and the positive dependency quickly dies off when thedistance increases at the township level. The spatial dependencepatterns of crop losses look pretty random, implying the possibility ofeffective risk pooling through the combinations of different crops andproduction areas. |