探索氣象預報「失準」之爭議報導：非專家與專家對氣象科學與科學家角色的認知差距

Meteorology and Meteorologists in the Debate of 'Wrong Forecast': Exploring the Conception Gap between Non-Scientists and Scientific Experts in the Media Coverage

本文企圖探索媒體報導氣象預報「失準」爭議中的非科學家與科學專家對氣象科學與科學家之觀點，以2009年八八風災為個案，採用報紙的報導進行質性分析。研究發現，媒體報導將「失準」爭議中的行動者二分為包括決策者與民眾的非科學家，以及包括氣象局與相關科學學者的科學專家，呈現雙方對氣象科學的不確定性與氣象科學家的公共角色之認知差距。媒體的呈現方式一方面突顯氣象預報傳播的問題所在，另一方面也同時建構了讀者對氣象科學、氣象科學家與非科學家的認知，這讓我們更進一步思考媒體在氣象預報傳播中扮演的角色，其對自身的期許及讀者（包括前述非科學家與科學專家）對媒體報導的期待。

This study adopted a qualitative approach to explore how non-scientists and scientific experts consider meteorology and the role of meteorological scientists by investigating newspaper articles regarding the 'wrong forecast' in the 2009 Typhoon Morakot. The results showed that the news reports demarcate actors in the debate as non-scientists and scientific experts, with the policy-makers in the former group, and the meteorologists and professors in the latter. This research also found that the way media represents pinpoints the shortcomings in weather forecast on the one hand, and constructs the understanding of meteorology, meteorologists as well as non-scientists for the readers on the other. These findings led us to rethink the role media plays in weather forecast, and readers' (including the aforementioned nonscientists' and scientific experts') expectations to media.