城市氣候風險治理評估指標建構之初探

The Preliminary Study of Constructing the Indicators of City Climate Risk Governance

因氣候異常導致澇旱交替的場景，近來經常在世界各地出現。由於氣候變遷等因素，致使各國增加風險的機會。臺灣即屬高災害風險地區，氣候與環境變遷因素將凸顯風險與脆弱度問題的嚴重性，其中高密度發展的城市地區，更是容易發生災害的氣候敏感區位。氣候變遷的高度不確定性與大規模災害的脆弱因子，以及對應需具備防範與處置之能力，皆為氣候治理之風險要素。是故本研究為瞭解氣候變遷對於城市之衝擊，希冀建置指標系統，俾使風險評估有更具體的參考依據。由於城市氣候風險治理在國內相關研究文獻付之闕如，因此本研究之主要目的，乃係從既有之相關文獻，初步得知城市氣候風險治理的要素與指標；繼之透過德菲法、專家諮詢與層級分析等研究方法，最終彙整出包含3項構面、13項次級要素與31項指標之城市氣候風險治理評估指標體系。後續之研究工作，可以本指標體系為基礎，在「指標體系」面向上，應考量指標適用之模組、指標體系之實際應用，與指標數據之統計與公布；在「城市因應氣候風險」面向上，則需關注城市於指標項目水準之提升、適切管理與具體衡量重要的評核項目、指標受到環境結構因素影響的程度與範疇。

Due to the climatic anomalies, the alternation between flooding and drought usually occur around the world. Because of climate change and other factors, resulting in increased opportunities for risk with countries. Taiwan is a high disaster risk area, climate and environmental change factors will highlight the seriousness of the risk and vulnerability issues. High-density development areas in cities are where is prone to disasters. High degree of uncertainty of climate change, vulnerability factors in large scale disasters and the need of having corresponding ability to prevent and the disposal are all risk factors of climate governance. Therefore, this study is to understand the impact of climate change for the city, hoping to build a system of indicators to allow risk assessments for more specific reference. For lacking of relevant urban climate governance literature in domestic academic, so the main purpose of this study is to learn elements and indicators of climate risk governance from existing relevant literature. Followed by using Delphi method, advisory specialist and the analytic hierarchy process and finally we summarize three dimensions, fourteen secondary elements and thirty-six indicators of urban climate risk governance evaluation system. This indicator system can provide the subsequent research with foundation in ＂indicator system＂ aspect which is to consider ideal candidate, value of indicators, verification of indicators and statistics and publications of index data. Moreover, in ＂coping city climate risk＂ aspect, we need to focus on improvement of indicators, appropriate management, critical assessment of specific projects, and the degree and scope that indicators affected by environmental structural factors.