影響大國簽訂雙邊投資協定關鍵因素：政治壓力還是經濟利益

Key Factors for Bilateral Investment Treaties Signed between Major Countries: Political Pressure or Economic Interests?

本文利用追蹤資料邏輯模型，檢證大國對102個開發中國家簽署雙邊投資協定（BITs）的政經動機。研究對象為中國大陸、法國、德國、日本、英國與美國；研究時間1987至2012年。研究發現：第一，大國簽署BITs的關鍵因素依序是，競爭壓力、地主國的經濟資源，以及保障海外直接投資的安全。很顯然，大國簽署BITs的首要考量為政治壓力，其次才是經濟利益。第二，大國競簽的壓力來源為：決策者對於國際體系權力分配的認知。例如：美國旨在爭取BITs標準設定的制高點，維繫其國際影響力。因此，BITs數量並非其競簽壓力來源。反之，中國大陸擔心BITs產生的投資移轉效果，造成永續發展的國內能源供給斷鏈問題。所以，即使中國大陸的BITs數量高居世界第二，但其競簽壓力依舊沈重。

This paper applied the panel data logit model (PDLM) to determine the key political and economic motivations for major countries to sign bilateral investment treaties (BITs) with 102 developing countries. The research objects cover six major countries, namely China, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States; the study period is from 1987 to 2012. Some of the major findings are listed below. Firstly, competitive pressure is the number one reason why major countries are motivated to sign BITs with developing countries, followed by the host countries' economic resources as well as ensuring the safety of their outward foreign direct investment. Obviously, political pressure outweighs economic interests and is the primary consideration for a major country to sign BITs with developing countries. Secondly, major powers are competing in the signing of BITs due to their self-aware position in the international. For example, by singing BITs, the United States aims at setting a standard on the BITs, in order to maintain its international influence. Thus, the number of BITs is not the main factor that compel the U.S. to sign BITs. On the contrary, China fears that BITs inked by other major countries would generate an investment diversion effect, which would interrupt its energy supply chain and essentially its sustainable development. So, even though the number of BIT that China has inked is already the second highest in the world, China still has pressure to sign BITs, especially with most of the oil-producing countries.