去除後見之明偏誤：列舉理由程序的應用

Debiasing Hindsight Bias: An Application of the Reason-Generation Procedure

本研究的主要目的是証實列舉理由程序為一種去除後見之明偏誤的程序，除了適用於一般性的常識問題之外，也適用於真實的未來事件。實驗採用一個2（問題型態變項：一般性常識問題／未來事件）X 3（列舉理由變項：列舉支持理由／列舉反駁理由／不寫理由）的混合實驗設計，實驗結果顯示：列舉理由程序的確可以同時適用於常識性問題以及未來事件上，但是只有列舉反駁理由才能有效地減少後見之明偏誤，列舉支持理由則不能。

The main purpose of the present study is to confirm that the procedure of reason generation, previously adopted to reduce hindsight bias in general-knowledge questions, is applicable to future events. A 2 (question type: general-knowledge questions/future events) x 3 (reason type: pro/con/no reason) mixed factorial design is employed in the present study. The results show that the procedure of reason generation is applicable not only to general knowledge questions but also to future events. However, only the generation of the con reason can effectively reduce hindsight bias. The generation of the pro reason has no such effect.