從博奕理論解析兩岸體育交流簽訂之賽局（1987年～1989年）

Analysis on the games entered by both straits through intercourse of physical education from the Game Theory From 1987~1989

本研究旨在藉由政治學國際關係理論中之博奕理論（Game Theory），運用運動社會學中衝突論的角度，加以描述、解釋海峽兩岸體育交流簽訂的賽局。並獲致以下結果：一、兩岸體育交流的簽訂，緣始自1979年起，中國大陸和平統一、一國兩制對台政策的轉變；以及1987年我政府開放大陸探親後，在「以民逼官」下於1989年加速形成。原本博奕雙方的均衡點應在（3、3），理性下採取對抗策略，卻反而出現在（2、2）這非理性的合作策略上，兩岸體育交流的簽訂便是在「囚徒困境」賽局下成立的。二、儘管兩岸體育交流的簽訂是場「囚徒困境」賽局，但只要涉及「主權」問題，恐怕又回到僵持的「零合賽局」上。因此，仍企盼雙方建立基本的遊戲規則，並維持一個功能有限的溝通管道（如兩岸奧會），擴大雙方的最大利得，並減少雙方的損失，藉此縮小差距，建立共識，才是兩岸體育交流之福。The purpose of this study is to describe, explain the games entered by both straits through intercourse of physical education, in the angle of conflict in sport sociology by means of the Game Theory in the international relationship of political science. The results attained are as follows: 1. The intercourse of both straits' physical education was entered since 1979 when the peaceful unification in Mainland China and the change of policy to Taiwan as 'one country two systems'. In addition, Taiwan's government opened to visit the relatives in Mainland China in 1987 that the said intercourse was formed quickly under 'people pushing the government'. Originally, the balance between both parties shall be on 'three to three' to adopt the opposition strategy under reason, on the contrary, on the 'two to two' such unreasoned cooperation strategy that the intercourse of physical education between both straits entered was based on 'Prisoner Dilemma' game. 2. Although the intercourse of physical education between both straits was proceeding to the 'Prisoner Dilemma' game, it's inevitable to return the original 'zero sum game' stalemate as long as the 'sovereignty' is involved. Therefore, it's highly expected that both parties establish a basic game rule and keep a communication channel with limit function (such as both straits' Olympic association) to enlarge the most benefit and reduce the loss for both parties. Further, to shorten the distance and build common opinion that is the welfare for the intercourse of physical education between straits.