美日財政問題之探討

Study on Fiscal Problems in the US and Japan

美國國債數量龐大且在全球融通，此次美國國會有驚無險通過調高債務上限法案，無立即倒債風險，但標準普爾將美國長期債信評等從最高的「AAA」調降一級到「AA+」，喪失最高等級的寶座，為美國史上頭一遭，使全球金融市場陷入些許動盪。但由於美元為國際間重要儲備貨幣，且其流動性高，故目前各國央行仍持續持有美債，尚無市場危機。但在面臨2012年總統大選之際，要在國會通過加稅法案有其難度，而增稅又可能加重經濟衰退的機率，經濟成長與財政紀律的平衡，成為一大挑戰。截至2010年底，日本政府負債總額占GDP比率高達220.4%，為已開發國家中最高者，然為大部分以國內借入為主，在國內低利率環境下無立即倒債風險，惟債務負擔持續增加，金融市場可能對日本政府擴大舉債更加警惕，而在市場提高風險貼水、提高公債利率的情況下，將更進一步加重日本未來的債務負擔。

On August 2, 2011, US President Obama signed the Budget Control Act of 2011 into law to increase the debt ceiling. But three days later, credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+. This was the first time in history that the US government was given a rating below AAA, and triggered a period of volatility in the world’s financial markets. However, because of the US dollar’s role as an important international reserve currency, plus its high mobility, central banks around the world have continued to hold US debt, and no market crisis has occurred as yet. But with the 2012 US presidential election pending, it will be difficult for Congress to pass laws increasing taxes. Moreover, increasing taxes would also have a high likelihood of exacerbating the economic slump. In these circumstances, balancing economic growth with fiscal discipline has become a major challenge for the US government. As of the end of 2010, Japan’s general government gross debt to GDP ratio had reached 220.4%, the highest among developed countries. However, since most of the debt is held internally, and domestic interest rates are low, there is no immediate risk of default. But if the debt continues to increase, financial markets may become more wary of the expansion of government borrowing, pushing up the risk premium and interest rates on debt issuance, and thus adding further to Japan’s future debt burden.