斷鏈效應對台、中、韓之經濟影響評估與因應對策——以關鍵電子零組件與設備為例

The Economic Impact on Taiwan, Korea and China of Supply Chain Disruptions Caused by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, and Policy Responses: As Exemplified by Key Electronic Components and Equipment

日本為東亞供應鏈的上游料源供應國，與台灣、韓國及中國大陸在電子產業有密切的貿易及供應關係，而東日本大震災對東亞供應鏈造成斷鏈效應，此效應對供應關係國的影響相當值得關注。本研究利用Miller與Blair（1985）投入產出模型，評估關鍵電子零組件與設備的斷鏈效應對台灣、中國大陸、韓國經濟及產業的影響，模擬結果如下：（1）斷鏈效應使台灣2011年GDP成長率減少0.149～0.327個百分點，此部分結果與經建會（2011.3）的評估相近。至於對台灣產業的衝擊，影響較大的產業為電子零組件與設備、電腦、電子及光學產品、化學及其製品、鋼鐵及其他金屬。（2）對東亞主要國家2011年GDP減損效果，由高而低依序為中國大陸、台灣、韓國。就產業的影響而言，台灣、韓國受半導體類零組件的衝擊影響較大，但韓國的衝擊僅為台灣的一半。此外，本研究參考震災後東亞主要國家的因應對策，並搭配模擬結果，提出政策建議：半導體類零組件產業做為我國優先對日招商及發展核心技術的對象；在東亞電子產業鏈的競合關係上，建議採取「聯合中國大陸對抗韓國」的策略。

Japan is an important upstream supplier of materials in East Asian supply chains, having close trade and supply relationships with electronics manufacturers in Taiwan, Korea and mainland China. Hence, the effect on those relationships of disruptions in the supply chain caused by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake are worthy of attention. This study employs the Miller and Blair (1985) input-output model to explore how industries and the economies in Taiwan, mainland China and Korea were affected by disruptions in key electronic component and equipment supply chains. The study finds that: (1) The supply-chain disruptions caused a reduction of between 0.149 and 0.327 of a percentage point in Taiwan’s economic growth rate in 2011, which is close to the estimation made by the CEPD in March 2011. The industries most heavily affected were those producing electronic parts and equipment, computers, electronic and optical products, chemicals and chemical products, and steel and other metals. (2) The negative impact on the 2011 GDP growth of major countries in East Asia was felt most heavily by mainland China, followed by Taiwan and Korea. Taiwan and Korea experienced a relatively heavy impact on their semiconductor component supply, but with Taiwan twice as heavily affected as Korea. Also, taking account of the policy responses of major East Asian countries in the wake of the earthquake, and matching them with the simulation results, this study presents the following suggestions: That the government should prioritize attracting investment from Japan and developing core technologies in semiconductor component production; and that Taiwan should adopt a strategy of allying with mainland China against Korea in the co-opetition relationships of East Asian electronics industry chains.