新竹科學城永續發展策略模擬與分析

Simulation and Analysis of the Sustainable Development Policies for Hsinchu Science City

新竹科學園區成長快速，產生可觀的經濟效益，但長期來其對所在都市的社會及環境也造成了重大的衝擊，引起社會大眾的注意，政府相關單位也提出了許多改善的策略，以減少衝擊。有鑑於此，本研究依據系統工程的理論，將新竹科學城視為一個系統，以系統分析的方法，利用專家調查法，建構新竹科學城永續發展指標體系，並以系統動態學的技術與STELLA語言建構模擬模式，從永續發展的角度，模擬新竹科學城未來合理的經營與管理策略。研究結果顯示，科學園區高科技產業之發展為帶動科學城整體發展之關鍵，惟在以產業經濟為發展主軸的同時，亦須注意社會與環境面向之問題。因此，未來應在不超限發展的原則下，朝園區產業高值化的方向努力，將園區產業對母市環境的污染與破壞降至最低，並盡量降低自然資源的消耗、減少環境污染、解決社會問題，以達永續發展的理想，進而實現綠色矽島之目標。

Hsinchu Science Park is an example of developing high technology industry in Taiwan. Its rapid growth has resulted in the tremendous economic benefits. However, it also has produced social and environmental impacts. These impacts result in conflict between economic growth and sustainable development of the science city. The purpose of this study is to establish a system dynamic model of Hsinchu Science city with STELLA programming language to simulate the different development scenario of science city. The results of this study found that the development of the science city should comply with the objectives of （1） maximize the industry profits of the science park, （2） minimize the damages of the science park to its mother city, （3） decrease the consumption of natural resources, （4） reduce environmental pollution, and （5） attend to relevant social problems.