失業率變動、薪資成長與全民健保保費收入

Unemployment Rate, Wage Growth, and Revenue from Premium of National Health Insurance

多數有關健何的研究大都集中在醫療支出的估計，保費收入的估計多被忽視。本文不僅完全針對收入做估計，亦是全民健保開辦以來，少數直接利用全民健保資料進行估計的研究。本文發現：費率每做0.25%的調整，將造成保費收入約10至12億元的變動。最高法定費率6%可收得之何費大約為257至310億元。加徵五口以上眷屬保費可增約1千七百萬至2千萬元之保費收入。本文亦對失業率變動與薪資成長對何費收入之影響進行估計，發現失業率上升1%，當月保費收入的最大損失約為1.8億至2.6億元之間；薪資成長增加1%，保費收入僅上升7、8百萬元，然一旦新增一最高投保等級後，保費收入增加躍升至約6千萬元至8千萬元間。估計薪資成長時，我們發現在平均分配的假設下，新的最高投保等級的設立對保費收入有顯著的影響。

Most of the studies on Taiwan national health insurance are concentrated on the estimates of medical expenditures. The issue of how much revenue that the current system can receive has not been extensively investigated. The is study is one of few studies that focus on this issue, and directly uses massive national health insurance data since March 1995 as the system began to operate. We found that every 2.5% upward adjustment on premium rate would lead to an increase in revenue of the amount about 1 to 1.2 billion. Revenue estimated under the assumption of the highest premium rate （6%） is about 25.7 to 35.1 billion. An increase of 1% of unemployment rate would lead to a possible maximal loss in revenue about 180 to 260 million. An increase of 1% in wage would raise revenue 7 to 8 million, and 60 to 80 million, with or without a new highest insurance bracket being added, respectively. In shows that an addition of a new highest insurance level is crucial to the revenue from premium.