縣市合併改制議題之研究：以高雄市、臺南市及臺中市為例

Research Issues Regarding City-county Mergers and Reorganization: the Examples of Kaohsiung, Tainan and Taichung City

依據國際關係中傳統的現實主義（realism），當一國成為強權，就會像強權一般地行事，即使強權之間並無不良的意圖，但國際體系中的「無政府狀態」（anarchy），卻使強權只因彼此所具有的能力而相互懼怕、走向衝突。當今現實主義大師米夏摩（John J. Mearsheimer）即主張，中國是一上升中的新興強權，而美國則是目前唯一碩果僅存的超強，倘若中國目前權力成長的趨勢繼續維持，美中兩國最終將無法擺脫這強權政治的悲劇宿命。然而，本文嘗試從米氏的理論中，挑戰米氏的此一論點：米氏的理論其實存有內在的不一致，他權力結構的解釋雖是基於現實主義重視物質能力（material capability）的傳統，但在這物質能力的思路上，卻是他自己所提出的科技與地理等兩項因素的互動，決定了他以區域為單位的權力結構推論。中國所在東北亞區域的地理環境，並不同於米氏所類比過去德國或蘇聯所在的歐洲，儘管當代的科技是突破了區域間的阻隔，但並不否定各區域內地理環境的差異。易言之，儘管強權是可能興起，但權力結構的變化並不是注定的悲劇，強權政治的命運是可以有所不同的。

Realism maintains a pessimistic view on great power politics. Under international anarchy, great powers compete for security just because of the material capabilities they possess. John J. Mearsheimer, the leading realist, built his theory of great power politics on this realist logic. He suggests that, as long as China keeps rising, the future of Sino-US great power politics is a doomed tragedy. However, this article tries to challenge this pessimistic view using the theory's own terms. Mearsheimer's theory has internal inconsistencies and overlooks the interaction between technology and geography introduced by the theory itself. This article argues that, unlike the pervious examples of great power rivalries between the US and the Soviet Union or Germany, China is located in Northeast Asia, a geographically constrained region, which is very different from Europe. In addition, technologies also vary. Current technologies do overcome the obstruction between regions but cannot overrule the geographical differences of different regions. In other words, great powers surely may rise, but the power structure itself is not enough to ensure conflicts. Great power politics are not doomed.