國內第三代行動電話服務之需求預測

Forecasting Demand for the Third Generation Mobile Service in Taiwan

本研究利用二項羅吉特模型探討可能影響第三代行動電話服務（3G）使用之因素，並與巴斯擴散模型相結合來預測國內用戶對於3G服務的需求。結果發現影響國內消費者使用3G服務之因素分別為強調手機在使用上方便性與容易操作性的「3G手機特性」，針對通話品質與業者服務口碑的「3G服務品質」，包含月租費、語音通話費率、影像通話費率、數據傳輸費率與優惠方案搭配的「3G使用成本」；同時發現有高意願使用3G服務的使用者為「高收入」與「高行動電話費用」特性的群體。最後，國內未來3G服務需求預測結果發現民國96年至100年將是3G服務發展迅速的成長期，3G服務的普及率也將會從24.86％提升至101.08％；而從民國101年至106年將是3G服務正式進入成熟期，普及率維持在100.05％，與2G服務的發展狀況相似。

The study adopts binary logit model to analyze the influential factors and probability of using 3G service. Together with Bass diffusion model, this study then forecasts the annual demand of 3G service during the ten-year period of 2009 to 2018. The results hopefully provide useful suggestions to 3G operators while making operating strategy and marketing strategy. It is found that the influential factors of 3G service usage include "3G handset features", "3G service quality" and "3G service cost". That is, more convenient and easier manipulative handset, higher call quality and better operator's reputation, and lower monthly rental/service rate and more attractive promotion increase mobile subscribers to use 3G service. Further, mobile subscribers with high income and high monthly expenses for service tend to switch to the 3G service. In the forecasting of future 3G service demand, it is found that the service will drastically grow during 2007 to 2011 with the 3G penetration rate from 24.86% to 101.08%. Then the 3G service will maintain in the highly mature status. Such a growth pattern is similar to that of 2G service.