自由現金流量與負債比對財務績效的時間性影響：台灣上櫃公司實證研究

The Time-Varying Effects of Free Cash Flow and Debt Ratio on Financial Performance: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan OTC Firms

在高度變動的經濟環境中，企業如何有效配置財務資源與管理資本結構，對其財務績效具有深遠影響。為探討自由現金流量與負債比率對財務績效之影響，本研究以台灣上櫃公司為樣本，並以資產報酬率（Return on Assets, ROA）作為主要績效衡量指標。核心自變數為自由現金流量（Free Cash Flow, FCF）與負債比率（Debt Ratio），分別評估企業資金使用效率與財務槓桿風險；同時納入公司規模（對數資產）與營收成長率作為控制變數，以排除潛在干擾。
本研究進一步設計時間虛擬變數（Period Dummies），將2015年至2023年區分為五個階段：基準期（2015–2016年）、中美貿易戰期（2017–2018年）、疫情前穩定期（2019年）、COVID-19疫情衝擊期（2020–2021年）以及疫情後復甦期（2022–2023年），以檢驗重大外部事件背景下財務結構變數對績效影響之時間異質性。透過交乘項（Interaction Terms）設計與多元迴歸分析，本研究得以有效捕捉時間調節效果。
實證結果有助於企業檢視資本配置策略與風險控管機制，亦可作為投資人評估企業在不同經濟情境下財務韌性與獲利能力之參考依據，進一步強化企業永續經營之財務基礎。

This study examines the impact of free cash flow (FCF) and debt ratio on the financial performance of firms listed on Taiwan’s OTC market from 2015 to 2023. Return on Assets (ROA) is adopted as the primary performance metric. FCF and debt ratio serve as key independent variables, representing internal capital efficiency and financial leverage risk, respectively. Firm size and revenue growth are included as control variables.
To capture time-varying effects under external shocks, the research period is divided into five stages: baseline (2015–2016), U.S.-China trade war (2017–2018), pre-pandemic (2019), COVID-19 (2020–2021), and post-pandemic recovery (2022–2023). Period dummy variables and interaction terms are applied to explore heterogeneity across different timeframes.
Using pooled OLS regression and robustness checks, the results reveal that FCF positively influences ROA, while debt ratio shows a consistently negative impact. These findings provide insights into how capital structure decisions affect firm performance under varying macroeconomic conditions, offering guidance for corporate financial management and investor assessment of firm resilience.