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篇名
釋迦收入保險費率釐訂之研究:應用Copula聯合機率密度函數
並列篇名
A Study on the Determination of the Revenue Insurance Premium Rate of Sugar Apple: Application of Copula’s Joint Probability Density Function
作者 楊明憲晁娜娜楊汭華
中文摘要

作物收入保險是農業保險發展的新趨勢,但傳統上只針對產量減損理賠的農業保險,因無法掌握產量與價格之量價關係而影響保費釐訂,且在有限資料量下依歷史模擬法估算保費,恐不能反映真實發生損失機率與幅度,從而影響保單設計與賠付率管控。釋迦收入保險為臺灣第一個作物收入保險,由於copula主要以機率的角度探討量價變數間相關與依賴關係,有助於收入保險保費之釐訂,而在臺灣農業保險文獻上卻尚未有應用此法研究,故本文即運用copula聯合機率密度函數釐訂不同保障收入和保障程度的保險費率,並與歷史模擬法進行比較分析,以期改善臺灣釋迦收入保險之設計,並提供費率釐訂之精算涵義。估計結果顯示保障程度愈高,保險費率也愈高。以100% 保障而言,各地純費率均介於2.22%~8.12% 之間,依基準收入換算,則每公頃保費為25,303元~95,463元。建議歷史模擬法之保費釐訂可參酌copula法在保費安全係數上予以彈性調整,即高風險地區的安全係數宜調高,而低風險地區的安全係數宜調降,以避免逆選擇並有利於作物收入保險之長期推動。

 

英文摘要

Crop revenue insurance is a new trend in the development of agricultural insurance. Since crop revenue insurance can avoid natural risks and price risks to ensure the stability of farmers’ income, it has become increasingly popular abroad recently. Due to the negative correlation between output and price, this article based on the yield and price changes of Taiwanese sugar apple revenue insurance, uses the copula joint probability density function to determine the insurance premium rates at different revenue-base and degree of protection, and compares with the empirical results of historical simulation method. It is expected that findings of this article would improve the design of Taiwanese sugar apple revenue insurance, and provide the actuarial meaning of rate determination. The estimated result shows that the higher the degree of protection, the higher the insurance rate. In terms of 100% protection, the pure premium rate of each region is between 2.22% and 8.12%. Based on different revenue-base, the premium per hectare is 25,303 NT dollar to 95,463 NT dollar. The result of the copula method insurance premium rate determination is further compared with the current actual premium estimated by the historical simulation method. Because the limited yield and price data of the historical simulation method may not reflect the true probability and magnitude of loss, the premiums in high-risk areas are underestimated and low-risk areas have the problem of overestimating premiums, which may not necessarily ensure financial balance.

 

起訖頁 083-114
關鍵詞 農業保險收入保險Copula機率分配保險費率Agricultural InsuranceRevenue InsuranceCopula Probability DistributionPremium Rate
刊名 應用經濟論叢  
期數 202106 (109期)
出版單位 國立中興大學應用經濟學系
該期刊-上一篇 氣象資訊服務經濟價值評估—以臺灣主力農家為例
該期刊-下一篇 醫療可及性是否左右房價?機器學習之迴歸樹及隨機森林模型的應用
 

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