影響群眾募資成功籌資金額之關鍵因素探討

The Analysis of Key Factors Affecting the Successful Funding Amounts of Crowdfunding

由於過往文獻鮮少論述影響群眾募資成功籌資金額的因素，本研究援引flyingV與ditfunding兩大臺灣群眾募資平台之平台條件因素，進而深入補強總體、金融、消費以及科技環境變數之於群眾募資成功籌資機率與籌資金額的影響。實證結果發現群眾募資平台之目標金額越低，支持者人數、評論意見數、更新次數越高，過去成功籌資經驗越多抑或過去失敗經驗越少，均將顯著提升成功籌資機率；而目標金額越高，支持者人數與更新次數越高，過去成功籌資經驗越多或過去失敗經驗越少，均將顯著提高成功籌資金額。其次，群眾募資成功籌資機率分別與臺灣全體銀行每月放款餘額及臺灣金融業隔夜拆款利率間具有顯著負向與正向關聯性，故銀行放款總量越少，群眾募資越易成功籌資，而隔夜拆款利率上升，銀行營運成本上升，亦將提升群眾募資成功籌資機率。國民消費總額及消費者物價總指數二變數與成功籌資金額間分別具有顯著負向與正向關聯性，故當國民消費總額越低或物價水準越高，群眾募資成功募得資金越多。最後，臺灣若具有較多的無線寬頻帳號數，其衍生的數位傳遞能力與滲透力越高，有助於提升群眾募資成功籌資機率與金額。

Few studies have properly discussed factors that affect how crowdfunding platforms successfully meet their fundraising targets. This research thus examines the effects of the conditions and factors related to crowdfunding platforms and then analyzes the effects of the macroeconomic, financial, and consumption variables as well as technological environment variables on the successful probability of crowdfunding and the amount of money successfully raised by employing statistical data from Taiwanese crowdfunding platforms flyingV and ditfunding. The empirical results reveal that crowdfunding platforms with lower funding targets, more backers, more comments, more frequent updates, and more successful or fewer failure experiences are significantly more likely to succeed; and that platforms with higher funding targets, more backers, more frequent updates, and more successful or fewer failure experiences are significantly more likely to increase funds raised. A significant and negative association is observed between loans from all banks and the probability of successful crowdfunding; in other words, lower total bank loans prompt more successful crowdfunding. Additionally, a significant and positive correlation is observed between the interbank overnight call loan rate and the probability of successful crowdfunding. This intuitively suggests that higher overnight rates result in higher bank operation and credit costs, which increase the probability of successful crowdfunding. Taiwan’s gross national consumption and consumer price index exhibit a significantly negative and positive correlation with the amount of funds successfully raised, respectively. This implies that when gross national consumption is lower or when price levels are higher, the amount successfully raised through crowdfunding increases. Finally, because crowdfunding is a type of e-commerce, more wireless broadband accounts in Taiwan, indicating more frequent digital transmissions and higher penetration rates, raise the probability of successful crowdfunding and the amount of funds successfully raised. However, increases in cell phone numbers alone enhance the transmission of non-digital information and thus do not increase the amount of funds raised.