北鷹南鴿？中共涉臺智庫風格的實證分析（2003~2025）

Northern Hawks Versus Southern Doves? An Empirical Analysis of Discursive Styles among CCP Taiwan Studies Think Tanks (2003~2025)

中共涉臺智庫長期以來被媒體和坊間賦予鷹派、鴿派的區別，指的是北京因處於天子腳下的政治中心，對臺較為強硬，屬於鷹派；上海因臺商眾多，重視兩岸經貿交流，福建因地緣文化與臺灣最接近，因此上海、福建被歸類為鴿派。本文以實證方式對涉臺智庫風格進行檢驗，挑選代表北京、上海、廈門的3份涉臺期刊，分別為《臺灣研究》、《臺海研究》、《臺灣研究集刊》，將2003年至2025年的3,340篇文章做屬性分類，分成「政治、經貿、外交、軍事、社會、融合、文史」七大類，分析風格比重差異；同時赴北京、上海與廈門，深度訪談三地具有豐富期刊編輯經驗的中國資深涉臺學者。本文除觀察分析3份期刊的風格變化，更比較前10年、後13年，胡錦濤、習近平時期的不同，並觀察在兩岸局勢的重要時間節點前後，智庫角色與政策的關係，是事前醞釀還是事後響應為主。本研究發現，北京的涉臺期刊，與中共對臺政策的節奏脈動最緊密；最重視政治議題的並非北京，而是上海；南方的廈門則維持重視臺灣文化歷史研究的傳統。比較胡錦濤、習近平時期，胡錦濤時期較重經貿研究，至習近平時代經貿比重下降，外交類和融合類文章增加，此變化切合中共對臺政策和兩岸局勢發展。本研究嘗試建構一個「雙軸分析框架」，以「分工式國家統合主義」作為垂直整合的縱軸，解釋中央決策體系與涉臺智庫之間的上下知識供應與政策形成的關係；並以「協同型政策網絡」作為水平協調的橫軸，解釋不同涉臺智庫之間橫向的分工、互補與知識協調機制，在既有「強國家」之下，涉臺智庫各自分工，各擅其場，最終匯聚成中央的對臺政策思維。
授權聲明網址：https://www.mjib.gov.tw/EditPage/?PageID=45a23953-ef7b-4a6a-a488-a3d57d9018d5

Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-affiliated Taiwan-focused think tanks have long been characterized in media and public discourse as either ''hawks'' or ''doves.'' This conventional distinction is typically grounded in regional assumptions: Beijing, as the political center under direct central authority, is presumed to adopt a more hardline stance toward Taiwan and thus labeled hawkish; Shanghai, with its concentration of Taiwanese business interests, and Fujian, given its close geographic and cultural proximity to Taiwan, are commonly regarded as more dovish. Drawing on an empirical approach to examine the discursive styles of think tanks, the study analyzes over 3,340 articles published between 2003 and 2025 in three representative Taiwan-focused academic journals based in Beijing, Shanghai, and Xiamen: Taiwan Studies, Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies, and Taiwan Research Journal. All articles are classified into seven thematic categories—politics, economy and trade, diplomacy, military, society, integration, and culture and history—to compare stylistic emphases across regions. In addition, the study incorporates in-depth interviews conducted in Beijing, Shanghai, and Xiamen with senior mainland Chinese scholars possessing extensive experience in journal editing and Taiwan-focused research. Apart from tracing long-term stylistic trends across the three journals, the analysis further compares the first ten years and the subsequent thirteen years of the study period, corresponding broadly to the Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping administrations. It also examines the relationship between the roles of think tanks and their policy stances before and after major turning points in cross-strait relations, assessing whether think tanks primarily function as agenda setters prior to policy shifts or as reactive interpreters following policy decisions. The findings indicate that Beijing-based journals are most closely synchronized with the pace and direction of CCP Taiwan policy discourse. However, Shanghai—rather than Beijing—places the greatest emphasis on political themes, while Xiamen continues to prioritize cultural and historical studies of Taiwan. A temporal comparison further reveals that during the Hu Jintao era, economic and trade-related research occupied a more prominent position, whereas under Xi Jinping, the proportion of such studies declined alongside a marked increase in diplomatic and integration-oriented research. These shifts closely correspond to changes in CCP Taiwan policy and the evolving cross-strait environment. This study develops a dual-axis analytical framework. The vertical axis, ''division-of-labor state corporatism,'' explains how Taiwan-focused think tanks and the central decision-making system interact through knowledge provision and policy formation. The horizontal axis, ''collaborative policy network,'' captures the functional differentiation, complementarity, and knowledge coordination among think tanks. Under a strong-state structure, these institutions perform distinct yet interconnected roles, collectively shaping the central government's Taiwan policy framework.
授權聲明網址：https://www.mjib.gov.tw/EditPage/?PageID=45a23953-ef7b-4a6a-a488-a3d57d9018d5