詐欺累再犯與詐欺複合犯風險因子之探究

Risk Factors for Fraud Recidivism and Composite Fraud Offending

本研究綜合犯罪學低自我控制理論、生命歷程理論、社會學習理論與道德脫離理論，旨在探討詐欺累再犯與複合犯之風險因子。以臺灣地區2024年計5，880位在監詐欺犯為研究母群體，參考相關實證研究後，研究者自編問卷並透過分層便利性抽樣（stratified convenience sampling），成功獲得435份有效樣本進行分析。透過二元邏輯斯迴歸分析後發現，「衝動性」與「偏差價值」為預測詐欺累再犯與複合犯的顯著因子，具有高衝動性與偏差認知者再犯與型態擴展風險較高；相對地，具「工作信心」者則呈負向關聯，顯示穩定職涯展望有助於降低再犯率。此外，「加重詐欺罪名」、「離婚／分居／喪偶之婚姻狀態」、「初犯年齡低」等亦為重要預測因子。本研究亦指出部分理論變項如「社會接觸」、「道德脫離」未呈現顯著統計效力，反映詐欺犯罪高度隱匿與集團化特性，未來研究可結合質性資料補強機制探索。綜合而言，本研究填補臺灣詐欺累再犯與複合犯領域之實證空缺，並提出政策上可行之介入建議，包括強化初犯者矯治資源、增能職業支持系統、家庭支持介入與再犯風險分級處遇，有助於建構更周延之詐欺犯罪防治架構。

This study integrates low self-control theory, life course theory, social learning theory, and moral disengagement theory to examine risk factors associated with fraud recidivism and fraud-related composite offending. Drawing from a population of 5,880 incarcerated fraud offenders in Taiwan (2024), the researchers collected 435 valid responses via stratified convenience sampling. Binary logistic regression revealed that impulsivity and deviant values significantly predict both recidivism and composite offending, while job confidence correlates negatively, indicating that stable career prospects may reduce repeat offenses. Other key predictors include aggravated fraud offenses, divorce/separation/widowhood, and age of first offense. Notably, variables such as social learning and moral disengagement showed no statistical significance, possibly reflecting the covert and organized nature of fraud crimes. This research addresses a critical gap in Taiwan’s criminological literature, offering empirical insights into fraud offender trajectories. Policy implications include early intervention for first-time offenders, vocational support enhancement, family-based assistance, and risk-based tiered treatment systems—aimed at building a more holistic fraud prevention framework.