邁向淨零的淺山地區生態系服務時空動態與權衡關係

Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Trade-offs of Ecosystem Services in Foothill Areas towards the Net-Zero Goal

2050前達成淨零目標已為世界共識，區域上的淨零目標需要對土地利用的詳盡規劃，瞭解生態系統所能提供的服務，尤其是與淨零政策最相關的碳儲存服務，提供對於區域土地利用規劃的詳盡見解。我們利用生態系服務評估與權衡模型（Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs，InVEST）、皮爾森相關分析與雙變量空間自相關分析，探討宜蘭淺山地區（員山鄉、三星鄉、冬山鄉）1994年至2020年村里界尺度的時空動態，及與人類淨零永續生活最相關之碳儲存、年度產水量、稻米生產與棲地品質服務間的權衡與協同關係。量化生態系服務，並確認不同尺度下多種生態系服務之間的相關性，可以為區域規劃提供依據，並促進具有豐富自然資源、但同時氣候脆弱之淺山地區的人民生活福祉。我們的研究結果顯示：（1）宜蘭淺山地區有賴於周遭國有林面積的穩定性，碳儲存服務在26年間大致能與該地區水稻生產的二氧化碳當量抵銷，提供了重要的碳匯源；（2）在全區尺度下，棲地品質服務與其他生態系服務間皆存在權衡關係，而其他服務間則為協同關係；（3）在村里尺度下，宜蘭淺山地區的生態系服務供給具有明顯的空間分布差異，我們認為對於區域的淨零目標，可以關注那些在26年間，不同生態系服務間皆存在協同關係的村里，顯示它們未來具有持續提供多功能生態系服務的潛力；（4）依據生態系服務在空間分布上的特徵，可以將宜蘭淺山地區分為三大功能區，並針對不同區域調整土地利用規劃與生態系服務利用策略，以利區域淨零目標發展。

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 has become a global consensus, necessitating detailed land use planning at the regional level. Understanding the ecosystem services that support net-zero policies, particularly carbon storage, is crucial for providing insights into regional land use planning. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, Pearson Correlation Analysis, and Bivariate Autocorrelation Analysis (Lee’s L) to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystem services at the village scale in the footfill region of Yilan (Yuanshan Town, Sanxing Town, and Donshan Town) from 1994 to 2020. We focus on the trade-offs and synergies among key ecosystem services essential for sustainable human livelihoods under net-zero policies, including carbon storage, annual water yield, rice production, and habitat quality. By quantifying ecosystem services and examining their correlations at different spatial scales, our findings provide a scientific basis for regional planning, ensuring that this ecologically rich yet climate-vulnerable area can equitably support ecological well-being. Our results indicate that: (1) The stability of the National Public Forest area has played a crucial role in maintaining carbon storage, which, over 26 years, has largely offset the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions from regional rice production, making it a vital carbon sink; (2) At the regional scale, habitat quality exhibits trade-offs with other ecosystem services, while the remaining ecosystem services show synergies; (3) At the village scale, the supply of ecosystem services demonstrates significant spatial variations. We suggest that villages where multiple ecosystem services have shown consistent synergies over 26 years should be prioritized in net-zero planning, as they hold potential for multifunctional ecosystem service provision in the future; (4) Based on the spatial distribution characteristics of ecosystem services, the foothill region of Yilan can be divided into three functional areas. Tailoring land use planning and ecosystem service strategies for these areas can better support the region’s net-zero objectives.