科技大學新生就學穩定性之雙軌分析

A Dual-Track Analysis of Freshman Persistence in Technological Universities

面對少子化與生源競爭的嚴峻挑戰，提升新生就學穩定性已成為私立科技大學校務治理的當務之急。本研究以113學年度某科技大學711位大學部新生為對象，整合新生學習適應調查問卷與學籍縱貫資料，基於期望失驗理論、學生整合模型及Herzberg雙因子理論，建構雙軌分析架構，以探討離校意圖與實際離校行為的影響機制。
研究結果顯示，生活支持感對離校意圖的總間接效果顯著高於學術支持感；學習適應不僅直接負向影響離校意圖，亦透過價值認同與整體滿意度產生序列中介效果；入學志願序為重要的背景風險因子。在實際離校行為方面，日間部學生主要受學習適應與入學管道的交互作用影響，進修部學生則較受職涯、經濟與生活壓力等外部因素主導。本研究提出分部別早期預警與差異化輔導策略，建議技專校院應同時強化期望管理、學習適應輔導與生活支持系統，以提升新生就學穩定性與留存成效。

Driven by the severe challenges of declining birthrates and intensifying enrollment competition, enhancing freshman persistence has become an urgent priority in the governance of private technological universities. This study examined 711 undergraduate freshmen at a technological university in the 2024 academic year. Integrating learning adaptation survey data with longitudinal enrollment records, and grounded in Expectation Disconfirmation Theory, Tinto’s Student Integration Model, and Herzberg’s Two-Factor Theory, this study constructs a dual-track analytical framework to examine the mechanisms influencing departure intention and actual withdrawal behavior.
The results indicate that perceived life support exerts a significantly stronger total indirect effect on dropout intentions than academic support. Furthermore, learning adaptation not only directly reduces dropout intentions but also exerts a serial indirect effect through value identification and overall satisfaction, with admission preference ranking serving as a critical background risk factor. Actual withdrawal behavior exhibits distinct divisional disparities: day-division students are primarily influenced by the interaction between learning adaptation and admission pathways, whereas continuing-education students are predominantly driven by external pressures such as career, financial, and life demands. Consequently, this study proposes division-specific early-warning systems and differentiated intervention strategies, recommending that technological universities simultaneously strengthen expectation management, learning adaptation support, and institutional life support systems to enhance freshman retention and persistence.