從東亞地緣政治變化來探討日本稀有金屬儲備

An Analysis of Japan's Rare Metal Reserves in the Context of Geopolitical Changes in East Asia

本文探討日本在東亞地緣政治變局下，對稀有金屬儲備態度偏向「貿易和平論」或「貿易預期理論」。透過比對日本經濟產業省、參議院、環境省、顧問機構，與相關業務執行單位日本金屬和能源安全組織（JOGMEC）及其前身天然氣・金屬資源礦物機構歷年資料，發現日本政府各單位對於稀有金屬儲備種類的定義存在分歧，導致部分早期研究對儲備演變的分期不當。在比對國際貿易中心數據庫後發現，日本在多數品項上仍依賴市場機制，但因美中貿易戰架構下，錳、鋰等國防與戰略產業關鍵物資出現明顯「去中國化」；此外，本文發現，相比於官方長期處於戰略曖昧，日本大型綜合商社在資源外交中扮演的中介角色，有時比官方機構更具影響力。

This article discusses Japan's stance on rare metal reserves in the context of geopolitical changes in East Asia, from the perspective of either the 'commercial peace' or 'trade expectations' theory. By comparing historical data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the House of Councilors, the Ministry of the Environment, and advisory bodies and related operational units such as the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) and its predecessor, the Gas and Metals Resources and Minerals Organization, the article finds inconsistencies in Japanese government agencies' definitions for the types of rare metals held, leading to inaccuracies in the periodization of the evolution of rare metal reserves in some early studies. A comparison with the International Trade Centre database reveals that while Japan still relies on market mechanisms for most items, the framework of the US-China trade war has resulted in a significant ''decoupling'' of key defense and strategic industry materials from China, such as manganese and lithium. Furthermore, compared to the ambiguity of the official long-term strategy, through its analysis of resource diplomacy, this article finds that large Japanese trading companies and conglomerates sometimes play a more influential intermediary role in resource diplomacy than official institutions.