退休金投資策略──台灣私校退撫新制之研究

Pension Investment Strategies: A Study on the New Pension System for P rivate Schools in Taiwan

根據私校儲金管理會提供的投資人與投資績效之資料庫，本研究模擬私校退撫新制投資組合之資產配置，採用完全被動式投資策略，以過去十年之每月法定提撥定期定額投資結果，與採用現行私校退撫新制投資組合淨值計算之結果相較，模擬結果顯示採用完全被動式投資策略，可大幅提高混和主動式與被動式投資組合之投資績效。其次，考量私校退撫新制鼓勵以增額提撥提高退休後所得替代率，本研究透過定期不定額增額提撥方式，模擬增額提撥之時點選擇與增加金額，結果顯示，投資組合淨值重跌時大幅加碼，能夠提升退休金投資收益率。

Based on the data of Teachers’Pension Plan for Private School (TPP), this study follows the asset allocation of TPP and constructs a theoretical pension portfolio by simulating fully passive strategies using index funds. Our result indicates that the investment performance of fully passive strategies outperforms that of TPP which combines both passive and active strategies. Moreover, we simulate contrarian strategies of value averaging investment upon the event of large market decline. Our finding shows that the long-term returns of value averaging are able to outperform those of dollar-cost averaging. This study makes contribution to pension participants and pension management.