中共「二十一大」菁英甄補：流動、變遷與挑戰

Elite Recruitment in the CCP's 21th Party Congress: Mobility, Structural Change, and Political Challenges

中共於2022年10月召開「二十大」並選出205位中央委員，成為中共治國理政新政治菁英。其中除24位中央政治局委員擔任核心與重要職務外，其餘成員未來升遷、任免須具備何種條件，何人較具政治潛力，是本文關注之焦點。本文主要透過專政體制、信任網絡與菁英政治觀點和文獻，探討習近平時期之菁英甄補和運作。此外，運用多元迴歸分析未來政治菁英甄補之條件、趨勢和具潛力之對象，期能對未來中共政治菁英篩選、晉升和汰除做預測和評估。根據本研究顯示，習的關係網絡、信任、忠誠、能力、廉潔與專業仍是菁英甄補要件。在高層菁英年齡彈性操作下，「二十一大」政治局委員逾「七上八下」界限者仍會做政治考量，且會有年齡梯隊安排。此外，在黨務、財經、軍事與政法和安全領域仍是習須優先掌控領域。另新政治菁英亦將透過「間接信任網絡」擴大甄補，也是時勢所趨。

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) convened its 20th National Congress in October 2022, during which 205 members were elected to the Central Committee, forming a new cohort of political elites responsible for state governance. In addition to the 24 members of the Politburo, who occupy core and influential positions, the career advancement and appointment of the remaining members depend on specific criteria. Identifying these conditions and assessing which individuals possess greater political potential constitute the central focus of this study. Drawing on theories and literature related to authoritarian regimes, trust networks, and elite politics, this paper examines the mechanisms of elite selection and operation during the Xi Jinping era. Furthermore, it employs multiple regression analysis to explore the conditions, trends, and potential candidates for future elite recruitment. The study aims to provide predictions and evaluations regarding the selection, promotion, and attrition of CCP political elites. The findings indicate that Xi's personal networks, along with trust, loyalty, competence, integrity, and professionalism, remain the key criteria for elite selection. Under flexible age norms among top elites, political considerations may override the conventional 'seven up, eight down' retirement rule in the composition of the 21st Politburo, accompanied by deliberate generational arrangements. Moreover, the Party, economic and financial sectors, the military, as well as political-legal and security domains continue to be priority areas under Xi's control. In addition, the expansion of elite recruitment through 'indirect trust networks' is likely to become an emerging trend.