基於動態遊憩暴露的自然型旅遊氣候風險評估：桃米流域之多情境空間分析

Integrating Dynamic Recreational Exposure into Climate Risk Assessment for Nature-Based Tourism: A Multi-Scenario Spatial Analysis of the Taomi Watershed

氣候變遷正加劇自然型旅遊目的地的風險，極端降雨、淹水與崩塌對觀光產業的存續與地方生計造成威脅。傳統氣候風險評估多依賴靜態人口或遊客統計，難以反映旅遊活動具空間分佈的狀態，易錯估局部高風險區域。本研究基於IPCC氣候風險架構，提出適用於自然型旅遊之氣候風險評估方法，並整合氣候危害資料、觀光基礎設施，及自願性地理資訊，以取得遊憩活動分布的時空資訊並以此建構遊憩暴露度。研究結果顯示，氣候風險並非均勻擴張，而是集中於既有旅遊熱點，特別是沿河廊道與坡地過渡區，並呈現由危害、暴露與脆弱度交互作用所形成的非線性空間變化。本研究有助提升自然型旅遊氣候風險評估之精度，並為空間導向之調適治理與永續旅遊規劃提供依據。

Nature-based tourism is vulnerable to intensifying climate risks, particularly in mountainous and ecologically sensitive regions, where extreme rainfall, flooding, and landslides jeopardize visitor safety, tourism infrastructure, and local livelihoods. Conventional climate risk assessments often rely on static indicators, such as resident population or annual visitation, which fail to capture the dynamic, spatially concentrated nature of tourism activities. Consequently, these assessments may underestimate the extent of high-risk areas. This study introduces a spatial climate risk assessment framework to identify and map climate-related risks for nature-based tourism, thereby providing decision-makers and stakeholders with actionable information for adaptive planning. Employing the IPCC risk concept (R = Hazard×Exposure×Vulnerability), the framework integrates multi-source datasets, including climate hazard projections, tourism infrastructure, and volunteered geographic information from eBird and Flickr, to represent dynamic recreational exposure and diverse tourism behaviors. Results indicate that climate risk does not expand uniformly but intensifies around established tourism hotspots, especially along riparian corridors and slope-transition zones, and exhibits nonlinear spatial transitions driven by interactions among hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. By adapting the IPCC framework and incorporating dynamic exposure through volunteered geographic information, this study advances spatial climate risk assessment for nature-based tourism and highlights the need for spatially targeted adaptation strategies to foster climate resilience and sustainable tourism development.