以國家安全觀點探析日本就中國潛在威脅之應對作為：2013年迄2025年9月

Japan’s Responses to China’s Potential Threats from a National Security Perspective, 2013–September 2025

中國自2012年起在釣魚臺周邊進行頻繁維權行動，並於2013年單方面劃設東海防空識別區，另同步與俄羅斯進行多場次軍演，以及對臺海施壓之軍事行動，致使日本安全環境日趨險峻；故日本將中國視為潛在最直接威脅，尤認為其軍力投射突破第一島鏈並向第二、第三島鏈擴張，對東海及西太平洋安全形成長期壓力。因此，日本自安倍晉三第二次執政起，因應中國崛起後對區域安全造成之挑戰，逐步調整安全政策，包含透過建立《國家安全保障戰略》、國家安全保障會議與新版《防衛計畫大綱》等制度性改革、持續擴張國防預算，以及擺脫僅依賴美國之防務態勢，向國際爭取更多安全合作機會。
日本對中國的回應模式，顯示其安全戰略正朝強化自主性與國際合作並進的方向發展，中國透過領土爭議、軍演及對臺海的威懾，對日本構成結構性威脅，而日本則以制度改革、預算擴張、軍力現代化及多邊合作作為回應；然而，雙方因歷史因素、地緣矛盾及戰略不信任，使得緩和關係的可能性日益降低。本文指出，日本安全政策未來可能受國內政局碎片化影響，但大抵仍將圍繞因應中國威脅而循序擴張國防自主性，並透過國際連結維繫亞太區域安全秩序。

Since 2012, China has conducted frequent “sovereignty-assertion” operations around the Diaoyu Islands and, in 2013, unilaterally declared an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea. In parallel, it has engaged in multiple joint military exercises with Russia and undertaken military activities exerting pressure on the Taiwan Strait, all of which have contributed to an increasingly challenging security environment for Japan. Consequently, Japan has come to perceive China as its most immediate potential security threat, particularly regarding China’s growing capacity to project military power beyond the First Island Chain and expand toward the Second and Third Island Chains, thereby exerting sustained pressure on security dynamics in the East China Sea and the Western Pacific. In response to the security challenges arising from China’s rise, Japan, beginning with Shinzo Abe’s second administration, has gradually recalibrated its security policy. These efforts have included institutional reforms such as the adoption of the National Security Strategy, the establishment of the National Security Council, and the revision of the National Defense Program Guidelines; sustained increases in defense spending; and a strategic shift away from excessive reliance on the United States toward the pursuit of broader international security partnerships.
Japan’s response to China reflects a security strategy aimed at strengthening both strategic autonomy and international cooperation. China’s territorial claims, military activities, and coercive actions toward Taiwan constitute enduring security challenges for Japan. In turn, Japan has sought to address these challenges through institutional reform, increased defense expenditures, military modernization, and expanded multilateral security cooperation. Nevertheless, historical grievances, geopolitical frictions, and deep-seated strategic mistrust continue to constrain the prospects for meaningful improvement in bilateral relations. This paper argues that although Japan’s future security policy may be influenced by domestic political dynamics, it is likely to continue expanding its defense autonomy in response to the perceived China threat while simultaneously deepening international security partnerships to help preserve the regional security order in the Indo-Pacific.