臺灣上市櫃公司之現金持有趨勢

Time Trends of Corporate Cash Holdings: Evidence From Taiwan

研究目的：本研究探討臺灣上市櫃公司歷年來現金持有趨勢的變化。除了檢視各類型公司於1996年至2002年間的現金持有趨勢是否存在結構性變化外，另以央行2000年初貨幣政策為對象檢測央行貨幣政策對公司現金持有量的影響。
研究方法／方法：本研究先以鄒檢定（Chow Test）測試現金持有量的結構性轉變時點，再以迴歸分析檢視央行貨幣政策與現金持有量的長期關係，並以雙重差分模型降低內生性疑慮。
研究結果：研究結果發現臺灣公司的現金持有比率於2000年初發生結構性變化，而成熟公司、大規模公司、低研發公司更傾向在結構性變化後增加現金持有量，但在考量公司特性轉變後，公司平均而言並未過度持有現金。進一步以央行2000年貨幣政策為對象，發現央行調降利率及擴張資產規模長期而言對公司現金持有量呈正向影響，且此影響並不侷限於財務成本較高的公司。現金儲蓄管道方面，研究結果顯示公司在結構性變化後，更易透過外部籌資管道，例如現金增資及公司債發行等方式，因應央行貨幣政策。
研究限制／啟發：本研究結果顯示臺灣公司的現金持有比率存在結構性變化，央行於2000年的降息可能為此變化的主要原因。
理論／實務／社會意涵：本研究指出央行貨幣政策的寬鬆程度對臺灣公司現金持有產生長期影響，公司在利率調降後增加外部籌資管道的儲蓄，且以籌資較不受限的公司為主，顯示央行貨幣政策對公司現金持有的非預期影響。
創見／價值：相較於美國公司可能因內部營運風險及研發費用等因素之變化而改變現金持有趨勢，本研究發現台灣公司的現金持有趨勢更受到決定外部融資能力的條件所影響。

Purpose–This research studies the time trends of Taiwanese firms’cash holdings. In addition to the test regarding the structural break of corporate cash holdings between 1996 and 2002, we examine the role of the central bank’s monetary policies in corporate cash holdings.
Design/methodology/approach–This research used the Chow test to examine the structural break of corporate cash holdings. We then employed OLS regression models to test the relationship between monetary policy and corporate cash holdings, and then we used the difference-in-difference model to address endogeneity concerns.
Findings–The results of this research found that Taiwanese firms’cash holdings had a structural break around 2000. Mature, large, and low-R&D firms tend to increase cash holdings after the structural break, but firms on average do not overly hold cash. Using monetary policy announced in 2000 as an exogenous shock, we found that monetary expansion policies positively affect corporate cash holdings. After the structural break, firms are more likely to save cash through external financing tools.
Research limitations/implications–This research indicated that Taiwanese firms have a structural break in their cash holdings. The monetary expansion launched in 2000 can be one reason for such a break.
Practical implications/Social implications–This research showed the long-term effects of monetary policy on corporate cash holdings. Financially unconstrained firms tend to raise their savings from external financial tools after the central bank lowers interest rates. This evidence indicates an unexpected impact of monetary policy on corporate cash holdings.
Originality/value–Compared with US firms which change the propensity of cash holdings due to internal operating risks and R&D expenses, we found that external financing ability is more likely to drive Taiwanese firms’propensity of cash holdings.