瑞典中立政策之演變

The Evolution of Sweden's Neutrality Policy

本研究以社會建構主義為主要分析途徑，並揉合歷史制度主義與現實主義視角，探討瑞典中立政策自19世紀以來的形成、延續、轉型與終結。瑞典中立並非單純的法律地位或安全策略，而是在戰爭經驗、國家認同、國內政治共識與國際規範互動中逐步建構而成的外交實踐。19世紀初，瑞典在拿破崙戰爭後放棄擴張主義，逐漸以不結盟與武裝中立作為避免捲入大國衝突的生存策略。兩次世界大戰期間，瑞典雖宣示中立，卻在地緣壓力、經濟依賴與道德責任之間進行策略性調整。冷戰時期，瑞典一方面維持「和平時期不結盟、戰時中立」的官方論述，另一方面則透過經濟、軍事科技與情報合作逐步與美國及北約形成密切安全連結，呈現「表面中立、隱性結盟」與「武裝中立悖論」的雙重特徵。後冷戰時期，歐洲整合、北約合作與北歐防務制度化，使瑞典中立逐漸由傳統避戰策略轉向合作安全模式。最終，2014年克里米亞危機與2022年俄烏戰爭重塑瑞典對安全威脅與國家角色的認知，促使瑞典於2022年申請加入北約，並於2024年正式成為成員國，象徵長期中立政策的終結。本研究指出，瑞典中立政策的演變不僅反映小國在國際權力結構中的安全策略的選項，也揭示歷史經驗、威脅認知與國內政治因素，如何詮釋中立政策。瑞典案例說明，中立是一種動態且情境依賴的政策實踐，而非固定不變的外交原則。

This article adopts social constructivism as its primary analytical approach, while also incorporating insights from historical institutionalism and realism, to examine the formation, continuity, transformation, and eventual termination of Sweden's neutrality policy since the nineteenth century. Swedish neutrality was not merely a legal status or a security strategy; rather, it was a diplomatic practice gradually constructed through the interaction of war experiences, national identity, domestic political consensus, and international norms. In the early nineteenth century, following the Napoleonic Wars, Sweden abandoned expansionism and gradually adopted non-alignment and armed neutrality as survival strategies to avoid being drawn into great-power conflicts. During the two World Wars, although Sweden declared neutrality, it made strategic adjustments amid geopolitical pressure, economic dependence, and moral responsibility. During the Cold War, Sweden maintained the official discourse of ''non-alignment in peacetime and neutrality in wartime.'' At the same time, however, it gradually developed close security ties with the United States and NATO through economic cooperation, military technology, and intelligence exchange. This revealed the dual characteristics of ''formal neutrality with hidden alignment'' and the ''armed neutrality paradox.'' In the post-Cold War period, European integration, cooperation with NATO, and the institutionalization of Nordic defense cooperation gradually shifted Swedish neutrality from a traditional strategy of war avoidance toward a model of cooperative security. Ultimately, the 2014 Crimean Crisis and the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War reshaped Sweden's perceptions of security threats and its national role, prompting Sweden to apply for NATO membership in 2022 and formally become a member in 2024. This development symbolized the end of its long-standing neutrality policy. This article argues that the evolution of Sweden's neutrality policy not only reflects the security choices available to small states within the structure of international power, but also reveals how historical experience, threat perception, and internal political dynamics shape the interpretation of neutrality policy. The Swedish case demonstrates that neutrality is a dynamic and context-dependent policy practice rather than a fixed and immutable diplomatic principle.