房貸利息優惠對生育與購屋決策的影響──來自高齡化經濟體的實證分析

Do Mortgage Interest Subsidies Affect Fertility and Housing Purchase Decisions? Evidence from an Aging Society

一項涵蓋全球200個城市的最新調查顯示，約九成城市的房價對當地居民而言已屬不可負擔。本研究運用家戶調查資料，評估台灣政府推行的「青年安心成家貸款」政策對於房貸負擔、購屋決策及生育行為之影響，並進一步探討此一房貸利率優惠政策在高齡化經濟體中的政策意涵。本研究以特定族群適用的青年安心成家優惠房貸利率作為政策工具，並採用配對後差異中的差異法進行實證分析。結果顯示，該政策使受益者的房貸利息支出平均下降7.9%;若排除房價最高的台北市與新北市，利息減幅更達17.6%。然而，政策對於購屋行為及生育決策並無顯著影響，顯示該政策提供的成本節省尚不足以作為推動購屋或生育的有效誘因。

A recent report surveyed 200 cities worldwide and showed that a staggering 90 percent are considered unaffordable for residents. Home ownership is pivotal for wealth accumulation, social mobility, and individual and societal well-being. Especially in societies with low fertility rates, excessive housing prices might discourage couples from starting families due to financial concerns and space constraints. This study investigates how a mortgage deduction scheme that aims to assist younger demographics in establishing households affects mortgage burden, housing purchase decisions, and fertility using household survey data. Moreover, we examine the scheme’s implications in an aging society, a novel aspect absent from the literature. Exploiting a unique feature of preferential mortgage rates for specific groups and using a difference-in-differences strategy with matching, we find that the scheme produces an economic reduction of 7.9 percent in mortgage burden. The effect is larger in areas excluding the cities with the most expensive housing, resulting in an economic magnitude of a 17.6 percent reduction in household mortgage interest burden. However, it has no effect on the probability of home purchase or fertility, indicating that the cost savings provided by the policy did not offer a strong incentive.