戰略模糊下的力量重塑：中國核嚇阻能力提升與區域安全動態

Reshaping Power under Strategic Ambiguity: China’s Expanding Nuclear Deterrence and Regional Security Landscape

中國核武擴張的加速及其伴隨的不確定性，已成為區域安全格局中的關鍵變數。由於中國官方在資訊披露上的克制，加上其奉行戰略模糊政策及拒絕軍備管制協議，使得國際社會難以準確評估其核武發展的真實意圖及戰略意涵。本研究從溝通、能力與可信度三個面向，分析中國戰略核嚇阻的構成要素及其整體核武能力。結果發現，中國核嚇阻力隨整體能力增長而較之前提升。然而，北京宣稱其仍然遵行的防禦性核政策立場，與外界看待其快速發展的核武能力，之間存在顯著的落差。中國持續擴充核武庫、發展核三位一體投射能力，並提升核武的機動性與生存能力，這些舉措在其官方採取戰略模糊的背景下導致外界懷疑其真實意圖。在中國致力於實現「強軍夢」與「強國夢」的目標，以及中美戰略競逐日益加劇的背景下，中國的核武現代化進程研判將會持續推進，對區域安全及全球戰略穩定之影響值得密切關注。

The rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal is triggering uncertainty in the regional security landscape. China’s lack of transparency, coupled with its ambiguous strategic policies and refusal to participate in arms control agreements, makes it difficult for the international community to understand the intension and implications of its nuclear development. This study examines China’s nuclear deterrence capabilities through three analytical lenses—communication, capability, and credibility. It reveals an increased Chinese nuclear deterrent compared to the past. However, the analysis identifies a notable discrepancy between Beijing’s stated defensive nuclear policy and the international perception of its rapidly growing nuclear capabilities. Under its strategic ambiguity posture, China’s sustained expansion of its nuclear arsenal, the development of a nuclear triad, and initiatives aimed at enhancing the mobility and survivability of its nuclear forces have raised growing international concerns about its true strategic intentions.
These actions increase strategic ambiguity and raise concerns about China’s long-term intentions. Driven by ambitions of becoming a“strong military”and achieving the“China Dream,”and fueled by growing strategic competition with the United States, China’s nuclear modernization is likely to continue. This has significant implications for regional security and global strategic stability that require close monitoring.