論刑事證據推理的混合理論及其評判標準

On the Hybrid Theory of Criminal Evidence Reasoning and Its Evaluation Criteria

刑事證據推理的三種主要方法包括故事方法、論證方法和概率方法，但它們都存在理論侷限。為此，可將作為整體主義的故事方法和作為原子主義的論證方法融合在一起，生成雙方優勢互補的混合理論。混合理論的具體建構應從兩個層面同步展開：在故事層，根據證據事實和預判法律規範的提示盡可能搜集故事版本，然後以因果性概稱陳述為紐帶聯結前後相關的事件或狀態，並把它們放置在恰當故事圖示中的對應位置；在論證層，根據證據材料的類型選擇適配的論證型式，然後在其框架中對證據材料展開證據性論證，並通過批判性問題的針對性質疑確保推出的事實命題能被故事合理解釋。為了檢驗建構的哪一案件故事最佳，可運用似真性、一致性、完備性、證據支持、證據理性和證據整全六個子標準對特定目標進行規範性評價。當一個案件故事越經得起評判標準的針對性檢驗，它對證據的解釋閾值就越高，在成為最佳故事的同時越符合刑事司法證明的排除合理懷疑標準。

Currently, the three mainstream international criminal evidential reasoning methods include the story method, the argumentation method and the probability method. Although they all have their own methodological advantages, they also have their own insurmountable theoretical limitations. Since the probabilistic method is not easy to apply, and its rationality demand is too high and its scope of application is narrow, and at the same time, the story method as a holistic approach and the argumentation method as an atomistic approach are not only practical but also complementary to each other's strengths, the story method and the argumentation method can be fused together to generate a comprehensive model of evidential reasoning that can be called a hybrid theory. As a matter of fact, this is also a new trend in the current research of criminal evidential reasoning at home and abroad. However, there is still room for further improvement in the established research on hybrid theory in the academic community. In criminal evidential reasoning, the specific construction of hybrid theory should be carried out simultaneously at two levels: at the story layer, collecting as many versions of the story as possible, according to the evidential facts and the hints of the prejudgemental legal norms, and then linking the relevant events or states before and after them with the causal generalized statements, and placing them in the corresponding positions in the appropriate story illustrations; in the argumentation layer, according to the type of evidential material to select the appropriate argumentation type, and to develop evidential argumentation of the evidential material within its framework, and with targeted questioning through critical questions to ensure that the introduced factual propositions can be rationally explained by the story. This construction process not only clarifies the knowledge system, methodology and logical basis of the hybrid theory, but also clarifies its key points, and more importantly, it breaks through the discourse constraints of Western scholars to a certain extent and combines with China's criminal justice cases to carry out, which suggests that the hybrid theory can provide a new methodology and ideas for China's criminal evidential reasoning. In order to test which ease story constructed by using the hybrid theory is the best, the judging criteria of the hybrid theory should be developed. According to the judging criteria, one is to use the sub-criteria of plausibility, consistency and completeness to examine whether the case story of the story layer is the best; the second is to apply the sub-criteria of evidential support, evidential rationality and evidential integrity to judge whether there are any flaws in the evidential argumentation of the argumentation layer. These sub-criteria are not only focused, but also closely linked, and are more refined and maneuverable than the criteria proposed by Bex. Strict adherence to them enables the evidentiary reasoning of a criminal case to move towards the reproduction of the truth of the case within the framework of the prevailing legal order; more importantly, the more the story of the case satisfies these criteria, the higher the threshold of its interpretation of the evidence, and the more it meets the standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt of the criminal justice system while becoming the best story. However, the perfect application of hybrid theory criminal evidential reasoning cannot be separated from the fact that the evidential reasoner is a moral subject with an internalized conscience.