美中日政經關係互動下臺灣經貿效益之評析

A Study of Taiwan's Economic and Trade Benefits Under the Interactions of Political and Economic Relations between the United States, Mainland China, and Japan

臺灣在美中日政經關係互動下，對於兩岸經貿等經貿效益等有關議題之策略分析非常重要，非常值得深入研究。本文即在此有關背景下，採修改之立體戰略三角錐模型等有關分析方法進行研究。經分析可發現當美中日三方經濟體皆為正面，但臺灣與美中日三方皆負面時得-9分，很不利。而美中日三方皆為負面，但臺灣各自與美中日三方皆正面時得9分，對臺灣經貿效益發展很有利。若以預估2026年GDP值做為各國（經濟體）影響力，當美中日三方皆為正面，但臺灣與美中日三方皆為負面時，恐擴大得-233.826分，此類型是對臺灣經貿效益發展最為不利。而當美中日三方皆為負面，但臺灣各自與美中日三方皆為正面時，可擴大得233.826分，此類型則對臺灣經貿效益發展最為有利。且由臺與美、臺與中，以及臺與日之政經互動關係，在正負面與經貿效益上分析，可知臺與美10種情境中有7種同向，臺與中10種中有9種同向，以及臺與日10種中有7種同向，可見中國大陸對臺灣最重要。所以，臺灣除維持或增進與美日正向關係互動外，相對最重要的是，維持或增進正向兩岸關係對兩岸經貿，甚至是整體臺灣經貿效益都非常重要。

In the context of the interactions of political and economic relations between the US, Mainland China, and Japan, Taiwan's strategic analysis of issues such as Cross- Strait economy and trade and other related economic benefits are crucial and worthy of in-depth research. Based on this background, this study conducts research using modified three-dimensional strategic triangular pyramid models and other related analytical methods. Analysis using this model reveals that when all three economies (the US, Mainland China, and Japan) are positive, but Taiwan is negatively affected by all three, the score is -9, the very unfavorable outcome. Conversely, when all three economies are negatively affected, but Taiwan is positively affected by each of the three economies, the score is 9, which is very beneficial for Taiwan's economic development. If we use predicted 2026 GDP as the measure of influence, when all three economies are positively affected, but Taiwan is negatively affected by all three, the score could widen to -233.826, the most unfavorable scenario for Taiwan's economic development. Conversely, when all three economies are negatively affected, but Taiwan is positively affected by each of the three economies, the score can widen to 233.826, the most favorable scenario for Taiwan's economic development. Furthermore, through the analysis of the political and economic interactions between Taiwan and the US, Taiwan and Mainland China, and Taiwan and Japan, in terms of their positive and negative impacts and economic and trade benefits, it can be seen that Taiwan and the US are in the same direction in 7 out of 10 scenarios, Taiwan and Mainland China are in the same direction in 9 out of 10 scenarios, and Taiwan and Japan are in the same direction in 7 out of 10 scenarios. This demonstrates that Mainland China is the most important to Taiwan. Therefore, in addition to maintaining or enhancing positive relations and interactions with the US and Japan, the most important thing for Taiwan is to maintain or enhance positive Cross-Strait relations, which is crucial for Cross-Strait economy and trade and even for Taiwan's overall economic and trade benefits.