俄烏戰爭新視角：俄羅斯總統普丁之壓力指標應用分析

New Perspective of Russia-Ukraine War: Analysis of the President of Russia Putin’s Indicator of Stress

決策者因應外交政策危機時的決策，具有長久深遠影響，因此決策品質至關重要。尤其決策者身處危機中的表現品質不一，部分決策者能夠顯現出合宜的應對能力，並妥善採取因應作為；某些決策者則顯得躊躇不定，或缺乏健全判斷力，而未能作出合適決策。影響決策者不同表現的原因，則是由於外交政策危機對決策者所帶來的壓力程度有所不同。個人心理壓力具備三大要素：刺激、反應，以及介於兩者之間的心理處理過程。以外交政策危機為例，壓力刺激來源即是決策者認知對國家目標的主要威脅。一旦決策者主觀化外交政策威脅，並經歷負面情緒，應對行為就會被啟動，而部分應對行為會影響決策者在決策時機有效採取決策之能力。
本文嘗試以美國政治心理學家Margaret G. Hermann所提出之三種壓力指標，透過口語與非口語指標，針對俄羅斯普丁進行分析，試圖找出普丁在壓力之下的表現、顯現出的負面情緒、應對行為。俄烏戰爭戰火蔓延至今，各方無不耗費大量資源，無人得以斷言普丁究竟所欲為何，也無法預測戰爭止息之日。透過提供與傳統國際關係研究不同視角，期理解普丁壓力指標的同時，也能夠豐富俄烏戰爭相關討論與研究之新面向。

Decision-making in foreign policy crises often has long-term and far-reaching consequences, making the quality of decisions critically important. Leaders demonstrate varying levels of performance under crisis conditions—some respond decisively and appropriately, while others hesitate or lack sound judgment. These differences can be attributed to the varying degrees of psychological stress experienced. Stress consists of three key elements: stimuli, cognitive processing, and response. In foreign policy crises, the perceived threat to national objectives serves as the primary stressor. Once this threat is internalized and accompanied by negative emotions, coping behaviors are activated, potentially impairing a leader’s ability to make timely and effective decisions.
This study employs American political psychologist Margaret G. Hermann’s three stress indicators to analyze the verbal and non-verbal behaviors of Russian President Vladimir Putin. It aims to identify patterns of stress, emotional expressions, and coping strategies in the context of the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. As the war continues to escalate—with significant resource consumption and uncertain outcomes—Putin’s true intentions remain unclear, and the end of the conflict unpredictable. By introducing a political psychology perspective, this paper offers an alternative to traditional international relations approaches and contributes to a more nuanced understanding of decision-making under pressure in wartime leadership.