兩岸關係與2024年總統選舉

Cross-Strait Relations and the 2024 Presidential Election in Taiwan

兩岸關係不但對美、中、台三方的互動息息相關，更在臺灣的選舉政治中，扮演重要的角色。本研究運用「臺灣選舉與民主化調查」在2024年總統選舉之後的面訪資料，分析民眾對於兩岸關係的評價與看法，如何影響其投票行為。
本研究從民眾比較政黨的兩岸關係處理能力、對三位主要候選人維護兩岸和平的能力、中共攻台可能性評估、兩岸武力衝突的憂慮程度以及對於中共軍機繞台的感受，解析其是否左右選民的投票抉擇。
我們運用交加列表以及納入上述因素，以多元對數勝算比模型同時觀察其對民眾2024年總統選舉投票行為之影響，結果發現：均有顯著的作用。在控制了選民的背景、台灣認同、候選人因素以及政黨好惡等因素之後，對兩岸爆發武力衝突的擔憂度對其投票抉擇具有重要影響。當民眾覺得兩岸可能發生衝突的擔憂升高，其支持柯文哲或是侯友宜相對於投票給賴清德的勝算比均會增加；此外，當民眾評估中共攻台的可能升高，在柯文哲與賴清德之間，更傾向支持賴清德。因此，隨著兩岸關係愈趨緊張，兩岸關係的相關因素對民眾的投票行為出現了重要的影響。

Cross-strait relations are not only closely related to the interactions among the US, China, and Taiwan, but also play a significant role in Taiwan's electoral politics. This study employs interview data from the ''Taiwan Elections and Democratization Survey'' conducted after the 2024 presidential election to analyze how public evaluations and opinions on cross-Strait relations influence their voting behavior.
This study demonstrates how public opinion on political parties' ability to handle cross-Strait relations, presidential candidates’capacity to maintain peaceful relations between Taiwan and China, their assessment of the possibility of a CCP attack on Taiwan, their level of concern about cross-Strait armed conflict, and their feelings about CCP military aircraft circling Taiwan, thereby influencing voters' vote choices.
We used chi-square tests of independence, incorporating the aforementioned factors to demonstrate their bi-variate relationship with vote choices, and employed a multinomial logit model to simultaneously observe their impact on public voting behavior in the 2024 presidential election. The results showed that all factors had a significant effect. After controlling for voters’background, Taiwanese identity, candidate factors, and partisan preferences, the level of concern about a potential armed conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait had a significant influence on their voting decisions. As public concerns about potential conflict across the Taiwan Strait increase, the odds of supporting Ko Wen-je or Hou You-yih relative to voting for Lai Ching-te rise. Furthermore, when the public assesses the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as increasing, they tend to support Lai Ching-te over Ko Wen-je. Therefore, as cross-Strait relations become increasingly tense, these factors have significantly influenced public voting behavior.