探析歐盟在剛果民主共和國對中國的柔性平衡以鈷礦為例

Analyzing the European Union’s Soft Balancing toward China in the Dem ocratic Republic of Congo: The Case of Cobalt

本文以剛果民主共和國（Democratic Republic of the Congo, DRC）鈷礦（cobalt）部門為案例，探討歐盟如何在非洲對中國展現柔性平衡（soft balancing）。研究指出，隨著全球能源轉型加速，鈷已成為歐盟追求戰略自主與碳中和（carbon neutrality）中不可或缺的關鍵原物料。然而，中國長期透過一帶一路（Belt and Road Initiative, BRI）下的資源換基礎建設計畫，以及多起合資與收購案，掌握DRC約八成以上的產能與全球七成精煉能力，使歐盟對中資供應鏈高度依賴，並衍生結構性風險與威脅感知。在理論層面，本文採用柔性平衡框架，區分「包容性」與「排外性」策略，以分析歐盟在鈷礦領域回復戰略自主的方式。研究發現，歐盟先採取不與中國正面衝突的解決途徑，透過全球門戶計畫、永續原料價值鏈夥伴關係、ESG標準及社會發展專案，間接提升自主性與供應鏈韌性，同時塑造規範優勢，以抵銷中國的結構性優勢。結論認為，DRC鈷礦案例不僅揭示歐中在非洲的競爭模式，也反映出柔性平衡作為非軍事回應策略的可行性與局限性。

This paper examines the European Union’s (EU) soft balancing toward China in Africa through a case study of the cobalt sector in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As the global energy transition accelerates, cobalt has become a critical raw material for the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and carbon neutrality. Yet China’s dominance—controlling over 80 percent of DRC production capacity and 70 percent of global refining capacity through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) resource-for-infrastructure projects and extensive acquisitions—has created deep EU dependence on the Chinese supply chains and created structural vulnerabilities.
Applying a soft balancing framework, the study distinguishes between“inclusive”and“exclusive”strategies to assess how the EU seeks to resume its autonomy. Findings indicate that, rather than confronting China directly, the EU has relied on indirect measures: the Global Gateway, sustainable raw materials value-chain partnerships, ESG norms, and social development initiatives. These instruments aim to enhance EU’s supply-chain resilience and project normative influence to offset China’s structural advantages. The DRC cobalt case underscores not only the competitive patterns of EU-China interaction in Africa but also the broader feasibility and limits of soft balancing as a non-military strategic response.