習近平時期中國維穩機制的內捲化

The Involution of China’s Stability Maintenance Mechanism under Xi Jinping’s Era

比較政治學長期關注不同政體如何建構政治秩序，以維係政治穩定與社會安定。中共歷代領導人為確保維護長期執政，於經社轉型過程中透過建立與強化維穩機制，致力於維持社會與政治局勢穩定。然而，近年在經濟下行背景下，中國公共安全預算不斷攀升，引發外界對「越維穩越不穩」現象的質疑。鑑此，本文提出「內捲化治理」概念，旨在分析習近平時期將社會穩定視為為國家安全核心組成後，維穩機制所進行的升級式調整及其所面臨困境。
自2013年中共在黨內設置國家安全委員會並提出「總體國家安全觀」以來，推動強化社會控制的法制化，維穩制度、組織及政策亦隨之調整。不過，此種調整並非真正的創新，而是對既有機制的持續複製，且維穩成本在經濟頹勢持續及疫情影響下卻仍大幅增加，民眾政治信任也正下降，形塑出一種穩而不安的「沒有發展的增長」狀態。顯然，威權體制過度安全化，會限縮對其維持體制韌性的學習與適應力，進而造成制度僵固。

Comparative politics has long focused on how different political systems create political order to maintain regime survival and social stability in the context of political development. In China, successive generations of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership have sought to uphold long-term rule by constructing stability maintenance mechanisms during socio-economic transformations to preserve social and political order. In recent years, even amid economic downturns, China’s public security budget continues to rise, prompting external concerns over a possible paradox: the more stability maintenance, the less stable society becomes. To address this, the article introduces the concept of“involutional governance”to explain how, under Xi Jinping’s leadership, the definition of social stability as a critical component of national security has led to escalated adjustments of stability maintenance mechanisms and the challenges they face.
Since establishing the National Security Commission (NSC) within the CCP in 2013 and introducing the“Holistic Approach to National Security,”China has strengthened the legalization of social control, coupled with coordinated adjustments in its stability maintenance institutions, organizational structure, and policies. However, this paper argues that such adjustments represent a continuous replication of existing mechanisms instead of innovation. The cost of stability maintenance has risen sharply amid the long haul of economic stagnation and the impact of the pandemic, while public political trust is declining. All these facts have resulted in a façade of stability that masks persistent underlying tensions—what can be described as“growth without development.”An authoritarian regime’s excessive securitization constrains its capacity to learn and adapt, ultimately leading to institutional rigidity.