中共跨境網路監控對臺灣民眾的影響機制：情緒中介下的寒蟬效應與隱私保護行為

The Impact Mechanism of China’s Cross-Border Online Surveillance on Taiwanese Citizens: The Mediating Role of Emotions in Chilling Effects and Privacy-Protection Behaviors

本文援引「情緒評估理論」與「情感即資訊理論」並採單因子組間實驗設計，來探討中共對臺網路監控感知對臺灣民眾心理及行為所產生的影響及其作用過程，藉此嘗試建構中共對臺網路監控影響機制的理論模型，期能了解中共跨境網路監控對臺灣社會可能帶來的負面效應及其相應的因應作為。基此，本文運用實驗法，以社群媒體監控、即時通訊軟體監控及無網路監控等三種實驗情境，檢視受試者在不同情境下的情緒反應、隱私保護行為、社群平臺寒蟬效應相關行為，以及線上兩岸議題表達意願。實驗結果顯示，相較於無網路監控情境，社群媒體監控與即時通訊軟體監控皆會引發受試者恐懼、焦慮及氣憤等負面情緒，進而促使其採取更積極的隱私保護行為，同時也在社群平臺的使用上產生明顯的自我審查傾向；然而，負面情緒並未顯著提升受試者在社群平臺上表達兩岸議題批判性言論的意願。整體而言，中共對臺網路監控感知所引發的寒蟬效應與隱私保護行為，主要是透過負面情緒的中介機制所產生；雖然寒蟬效應的影響程度相對有限，然其對民主社會中言論自由所可能造成的潛在威脅，仍不容忽視。

Drawing upon the Appraisal Theory of Emotion and the Affect-as- Information Theory, this study utilizes a single-factor between-subjects experimental design to examine how Taiwanese individuals’perceptions of China’s cross-border online surveillance influence their psychological and behavioral responses. This study aims to construct a theoretical model that explicates the mechanism through which such surveillance exerts its influence, with the goal of understanding the potential negative impacts on Taiwanese society and identifying corresponding coping strategies. To this end, the experiment employed three conditions—social media surveillance, instant messaging surveillance, and a no-surveillance control—to assess participants’emotional reactions, privacy-protection behaviors, chilling effects on social platforms, and their willingness to express opinions on cross-strait issues online. The results indicate that, compared to the no-surveillance condition, both the social media and instant messaging surveillance conditions significantly triggered negative emotions such as fear, anxiety, and anger. These emotional responses, in turn, increased participants’engagement in privacy-protection behaviors and led to greater self-censorship in their use of social platforms. However, the negative emotions did not significantly enhance participants’willingness to express critical views on cross-strait issues online. Overall, negative emotional reactions served as the primary mediating mechanism linking perceptions of China’s cross-border online surveillance to the chilling effects and privacy-protective behaviors. While the magnitude of the chilling effect was relatively limited, its potential threat to freedom of expression in a democratic society should not be overlooked.