極端氣候對臺灣通膨及產出之影響

Impact of Extreme Weather on Inflation and Output in Taiwan

本研究蒐集氣溫、降雨量與強風等氣候相關變數，首次構建臺灣極端氣候指數，用以衡量氣候風險。透過向量自我迴歸模型的一般化衝擊反應與局部投射模型累積衝擊反應分析發現，氣候衝擊會導致臺灣持續性的通膨上漲與低迷的產出成長，且結論具穩健性。其中，極端氣候可能透過食物類價格推升物價上漲；且文獻指出，極端氣候可能危害健康、引發心理壓力或缺勤等，這些因素可能會進一步降低勞動生產力，導致產出明顯下滑。

This study incorporated climate-related variables, such as temperature, rainfall, and wind speed, into a novel extreme weather index for climate risks in Taiwan. A generalized impulse response analysis was conducted using a vector autoregressive model, and a cumulative impulse response analysis was conducted using a local projection model. The results indicated that climate shocks were associated with persistent inflation and low output growth. Specifically, extreme weather events were associated with an increase in food prices. According to the literature, extreme weather can negatively impact health, induce psychological stress, or cause absenteeism. These factors may thus considerably reduce productivity.