美國2024總統大選對台積電供應鏈股價反應之實證研究

An Empirical Study on the Stock Price Reactions of TSMC’s Supply Chain to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

本研究運用事件研究法，探討2024年美國總統大選結果對台積電供應鏈股價反應之影響。選取17家台積電供應鏈概念股為研究樣本，分析大選事件前後之平均異常報酬（AAR）與平均累積異常報酬（CAAR），以量化投資人對政治變局的敏感性與市場反應。實證結果顯示：事件日前與事件後均出現多日顯著負向異常報酬，反映市場普遍對川普當選後之科技與貿易政策存在憂慮。整體CAAR於事件視窗期間最低達-6.68%，顯示股價反應不僅迅速，亦具延遲與持續性。本研究證實重大國際政治事件對高科技產業供應鏈股價具有明顯衝擊力，亦突顯台灣科技企業高度依賴外部政經穩定的結構性風險。研究建議投資人應納入地緣政治風險於投資策略，企業則應強化供應鏈韌性與國際佈局，以降低政策波動帶來之營運風險。

This study applies the event study methodology to investigate the impact of the 2024 U.S. presidential election results on the stock price reactions of TSMC’s supply chain companies. A sample of 17 publicly listed firms closely associated with TSMC was selected to examine the average abnormal returns (AAR) and cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) surrounding the election period. Empirical findings reveal that significantly negative abnormal returns occurred both before and after the announcement of election results, suggesting that investors were highly sensitive to the anticipated policy shifts under a Trump administration, particularly regarding trade protectionism and technology reshoring. The CAAR reached a trough of -6.68% within the event window, indicating not only immediate but also delayed and persistent market reactions. The results confirm that major international political events can exert substantial influence on the capital market performance of high-tech supply chains. Moreover, the findings underscore Taiwan’s semiconductor industry’s structural vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on global political and economic stability. This study recommends that investors incorporate geopolitical risk into investment decisions and that firms strengthen their supply chain resilience and global deployment to mitigate operational risks from external policy shifts.