川普2.0下的印太戰略

Indo-Pacific Strategy under the Second Trump Administration

川普二度當選美國總統，印證美國公民在經濟、移民議題上對拜登政府的不滿。除川普遇刺及拜登退選等黑天鵝與灰犀牛事件影響選舉外，參選時機、公眾形象、推行政策、選舉宣傳、選民意見等因素亦左右總統候選人支持度與選舉結果。同時雖川普因其特立獨行的執政風格使其難以預測，但根據川普過往執政經歷與外交團隊人選，仍能窺見川普在未來四年，對印太地區盟國與對手所帶來的潛在影響。川普遴選盧比歐、瓦爾茲等建置派人選，展現川普的鷹派國安團隊在全面壓制中國大陸之際，將要求美國印太地區盟友承擔更多責任，以經濟手段迫使外資融入美國供應鏈，並重新評估拜登時期所建立的三方同盟機制，考驗印太國家在經濟與安保天平上的平衡選擇與各國政府的戰略定力。

Trump's re-election as President of the United States reflects American citizens' dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's handling of economic and immigration issues. Besides Trump's rally shooting and Biden's drop out decision become the black swan and grey rhino which affect 2024's presidential election, factors such as timing of announcing candidacy, public image, policy and election campaigns, and voter opinions also influence candidate's support and election outcome. Although Trump's unique governing style makes him become an unpredictable politician, his past governance records and his diplomatic team provide insights into the potential impact on U.S. Indo-Pacific allies and adversaries over the next four years. By appointing establishment figures such as Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, Trump signals the intentions of his hawkish national security team to suppress China comprehensively while demanding greater responsibility from U.S. Indo-Pacific allies. This strategy includes using economic means to integrate foreign investments into U.S. supply chains and reassessing the trilateral alliances established during Biden's administration. Challenging Indo-Pacific nations' ability to balance economic and security interests and their governments cabinet.