打好球或打壞球？中華職業棒球大聯盟打者本壘板紀律之研究

Hitting a strike or a ball? A study of batters’plate discipline in the Chinese Professional Baseball League

緒論：本文運用影像分析、專業情蒐中華職業棒球大聯盟六個月賽事、共90,368投球數，為國內首篇探討本壘板紀律之研究，本壘板紀律對於判斷打者或投手的類型非常有用，觀察專項數據變化通常可以顯示打者打擊方式的潛在變化、或者打者面對投手的態度。方法：本文經由「影像系統」、「系統整合」、「比賽記錄」、「資訊呈現」，建構棒球影像數據系統；本文運用描述性統計、皮爾森積差相關分析、單一樣本t檢定、獨立樣本t檢定釐清不同角色打者本壘板紀律；運用效率分析結合敏感度分析，驗證本壘板紀律重要性。結果：一、本文經文獻分析區分本壘板紀律為「好球帶設定」、「積極揮擊」、「確實擊球」。二、相關分析顯示，中華職棒打者攻擊現況呈現「壞球選不好」、「好球打不好」，在本壘板紀律概念之「積極揮擊」、「確實擊球」兩面向未盡理想；同時驗證本壘板紀律定義「好球帶外揮棒率」、「揮空率」兩項數據越低表現越好、其餘六項數據越高表現越好。三、效率分析驗證新人打者「揮棒速度快」、「揮棒力量不足」、與「恐左症」，顯示左打者「揮棒控制能力不足」。四、敏感度分析顯示，揮棒率、好球帶內擊中率等二項數據有助提升打擊率，揮棒率、好球率等二項數據有助提升場內安打率；落實「積極揮擊」、「確實擊球」、「好球帶設定」打擊哲學，長打表現自然隨之提升。結論：打好球或打壞球？本文總結中華職棒打者無論好球、壞球皆可出棒，惟須達到「降低揮空率」、「不追打壞球」、「積極出棒揮擊」、「好球積極揮擊」攻擊策略，建立高品質好球帶紀律、提升打擊表現。本文建議研究樣本數量與深度、手眼協調與視覺運動反應、裁判因素，為本壘板紀律重要議題，建議未來發展與趨勢涵蓋影像分析提升進化、人工智慧技術發展與延伸應用、強化情報蒐集於四級基層棒球運用。

Introduction: Through image analysis and professional intelligence gathering, this study analyzed a total of 90,368 pitches in the Chinese Professional Baseball League (CPBL) over a six-month period. The researchers ventured into uncharted territory by exploring plate discipline in Taiwan for the first time. Plate discipline data is useful for providing information about both the batter and the pitcher. Observing specialized data changes reveals potential shifts in a batter’s hitting approach or attitude when facing a particular pitcher. Methods: We meticulously constructed a Baseball Image Data System that integrated game records and information displays. We employed descriptive statistics, the Pearson product-moment correlation, the One-Sample t-test, and the Independent Samples t-test to clarify the different elements of the batter’s plate discipline. We also used efficiency and sensitivity analyses to verify the importance of the differences in batters’plate discipline, and thus provide further confidence in the validity of our findings. Results: 1. Analysis of the literature shows that plate discipline is divided into three major components:“strike zone setting,”“aggressive swing,”and“accurate contact.”2. The data revealed that the current attacking approach of CPBL batters includes issues such as“failure to identify balls”and“failure to make solid contact with strikes.”It also indicated deficiencies in“aggressive swinging”and“accurate contact.”Additionally, the data validated the current understanding of batters’plate discipline, in which lower values in“Zone Swing%”and“SwStr%”(Swinging Strike Percentage) indicate better performance, while higher values in the six other standard indicators correspond to better outcomes. 3. Efficiency analysis showed that rookie batters had a“fast swing velocity,”“insufficient swing power,”and“left-handed pitcher phobia,”and that left-handed batters had“insufficient swing control.”4. The sensitivity analysis indicated that Swing% and Z-Contact% contribute to improving AVG, while Swing% and Zone% enhance BABIP. If the hitting philosophy of“aggressive swing,”“accurate contact,”and“strike zone setting”is implemented, slugging performance will naturally improve. Conclusion: Hitting a Strike or a Ball? This study concludes that CPBL batters’plate discipline allows for swinging at both strikes and balls. However, this approach must align with a hitting strategy focused on achieving a lower“SwStr%,”a lower“Zone Swing%,”an“aggressive swing,”and“accurate contact with strikes.”The batters’strategies should aim to establish high-quality plate discipline and enhance hitting performance. This study also underscores the importance of sample size, eye-hand coordination, and umpire issues, and paves the way for exciting future research. We suggest further advancements in image analysis, the extended application of artificial intelligence, and strengthening intelligence gathering for grassroots amateur baseball.