衡量企業永續：相對排名在ESG績效預測中的作用

Measuring Corporate Sustainability: The Role of Relative Rankings in ESG Performance Prediction

本研究旨在探討企業相對永續排名對未來永續績效的預測能力，回應現行永續評分方法論在準確性與穩定性方面的侷限。相對永續排名是透過企業在產業或群體中的相對排名與絕對分數結合評估，能有效減緩不同評分機構之間由於分歧造成的困擾，並補足僅使用單一衡量進行跨產業比較的盲點。本研究使用Refinitiv 2004-2023年資料，實證顯示企業於前一年的相對永續排名能穩定預測其未來永續績效，且此結果在控制先前績效後仍具顯著性。進一步納入永續爭議事件後發現，雖相對排名具預測力，但在永續爭議下相對永續排名將提供負向的預測力，本研究亦探討財務特徵與相對排名的額外分析，對資本市場參與者具有參考價值。

The purpose of this study is to investigate the ability of relative sustainability rankings of firms to predict future sustainability performance and to address the limitations of the current sustainability scoring methodology in terms of accuracy and stability. Relative sustainability rankings are assessed through a combination of relative rankings and absolute scores of firms within an industry or group, which can effectively mitigate the confusion caused by disagreements between different rating agencies and fill the gap left by using only a single measure for cross-industry comparisons. Using data from Refinitiv 2004-2023, this study empirically demonstrates that a firm's relative sustainability ranking in the previous year is a stable predictor of its future sustainability performance, and this result remains significant after controlling for prior performance. Further incorporation of sustainability controversies reveals that while relative rankings have predictive power, relative sustainability rankings will predict future performance in the opposite direction in the presence of sustainability controversies. This study also examines how financial characteristics interact with relative rankings, providing insights for capital market participants.