房屋買賣穩賺不賠嗎？臺北都會區實價登錄資料驗證

Do Property Transactions Always Earn Profits? An Empirical Study of Actual Price Registration Data in the Taipei Metropolitan Area

受到社會風氣與媒體傳播影響，臺灣民眾常對房市存有迷思，以為買賣不動產穩賺不賠。本文利用內政部不動產交易實價登錄的真實成交資料，篩選重複交易的住宅樣本，計算其買賣的報酬率，結果顯示房屋買賣並非如坊間所謂的「穩賺不賠」。考量通貨膨脹、交易成本與稅負等實際市場摩擦成本，並允許購屋者使用財務槓桿，臺北都會區不動產交易之實質自有資金報酬率，年化平均值為-14.41%，中位數為-5.85%，顯示多數房屋買賣不一定能夠獲利。二元羅吉斯迴歸的結果亦顯示購入總價、持有時間、買賣時點、產品類型與區位為決定報酬正負的關鍵變數，總價越低、持有時間越長，越容易獲利。交易時機雖是重要變數，但卻是後見之明。此外，房地合一所得稅實施後，對房屋短期交易與獲利則有明顯的影響。

There exists a myth in Taiwan’s housing market that property transactions guarantee profits, fueled by societal norms and media advocacy. This study uses repeat-sale data in actual price registration database to analyze the real return rate of property transactions. Our results show the property transactions do NOT always earn profits. Considering inflation rate, transaction costs, and related taxes and allowing mortgage leverage in house-buying, the mean of annual real return rate on equity is -14.41% while the median is -5.85% indicating that many property transactions are not guaranteed to make profits. The results of binary logistic model show that the total price of house-buying, holding period, transaction time, property types, and location are important determinants of positive/negative return rates of property transactions. Lower total prices and longer holding period are more likely to yield profits in property transactions. Transaction time is an important determinant but it is easier to be wise after the event. After the implementation of House and Land Transaction Income Tax, the real return rate of property transactions is more likely to be negative. The results show that the housing policy and taxation have significant impacts on the housing market.