解析習近平反腐作為下民眾的政治心理：貪腐認知的類型建構

Public Opinion Under Xi Jinping’s Anti-Corruption Campaign: A Typological Analysis of Corruption Perceptions

2012年習近平上臺後中共大力懲治政治腐敗，因案落馬的官員不論在數量、層級上皆前所未見。在政府大力反貪打腐下，中國民眾如何看待腐敗現象？如何理解民眾面對官員貪腐問題的政治心理？本文從類型學的視角出發，結合「貪腐現況」、「貪腐行為風險」等兩項大眾主觀評估，來探析中國民眾在政府大力肅貪中如何看待腐敗問題。本研究的經驗資料來自WVS第七波在中國的調查。研究結果發現多數受訪者一方面評估貪腐情況嚴重，但另一方面也認為貪腐行為高風險，且這兩項認知如預期地屬於獨立、可區隔的主觀評估。不同社會背景者的貪腐認知差異並不大，顯示中國貪腐問題應已為民眾所周知，其中主觀社會階層為中上者對貪腐問題的認識更受到政府反腐作為所影響。此外，實證分析發現使用報紙頻率愈高者，有較高的機率認為官員貪腐具高風險；機構信任、政治體制滿意度也如預期的區辨貪腐風險評估高／低的面向。這些經驗發現，大致上能支持本研究提出的「修補正當性」研究預期。本文填補文獻對中國民眾看待腐敗問題的理解，研究發現也回應中國威權韌性的討論。

Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has launched a vigorous crackdown on political corruption. In light of Xi’s extensive anti-corruption campaign, how do Chinese people perceive corruption, and how can their political psychology be understood when confronted with official corruption? From a typological perspective, this study combines two public subjective assessments—”the perceived prevalence of corruption”and“the perceived risk of engaging in corruption”—to examine how Chinese citizens perceive corruption amid the government’s vigorous anti-corruption efforts. The empirical data for this analysis are drawn from the seventh wave of the World Values Survey conducted in China. The study’s findings reveal that while the majority of the public perceives official corruption as a serious issue, they also view corrupt behavior among officials as high-risk. As anticipated, these two aspects represent independent and distinct subjective assessments. Also, perceptions of corruption vary little across social backgrounds, indicating broad public acknowledgment of the issue in China. For individuals identifying as middle or upper class, these perceptions are more strongly shaped by the government’s anti-corruption campaign. Empirical analysis confirms that people who frequently read newspapers are more likely to view official corruption as high-risk. Additionally, institutional confidence and satisfaction with the political system, as expected, serve as key factors distinguishing between high and low corruption risk assessments. These findings align with the study’s proposed concept of“repairing legitimacy.”This article contributes to the existing literature on Chinese public perceptions of corruption and provides valuable insights into discussions on China’s authoritarian resilience.