臺北市公共自行車與大眾運輸系統之關聯性：追蹤資料之實證分析

Relationship Between Public Bicycles and Mass Rapid Transit System in Taipei: An Empirical Analysis Using Panel Data

公共自行車的是完善公共交通系統可及性的重要綠色運具，因此在世界各城市興起風潮而備受重視。本研究透過建立臺北市319個YouBike1.0站點共12期（2017年5月至2018年4月）之追蹤資料，探討公共自行車與捷運、公車之關聯性。實證結果呈現以下重點。（1）與YouBike站點最近捷運站之「出站人次」以及「距離」，對於YouBike租借量分別具有顯著之正向與負向效果，因此判斷YouBike對於大眾捷運具有明顯之「互補」效果。（2）捷運站出站人次、捷運站距離兩變數之間具有顯著的「交互作用」，亦即，捷運站出站人次規模會對於捷運站有效影響YouBike使用量之空間範圍產生顯著效果。（3）四項與公車相關之解釋變數（公車站距離、300公尺範圍內公車站數量、最近公車站路線數、距離與最近公車站路線數之交互作用項），皆無法達到顯著水準。進一步的分析發現，不同地區的土地使用與公共運輸現況，會改變不同公共運具之間的關聯性；在遠離捷運站的地區，YouBike與公車呈現出較強的整合互補關係；鄰近捷運站之地區，YouBike與公車應可能具有較強的競爭替代關係。（4）低租借量Youbike站點較不受氣溫影響，但受捷運出站人次與捷運站距離影響更為明顯；反之，高租借量站點則較不受捷運站距離之影響。高、低租借量組別呈現出明顯的對比樣態。

Public bicycles are a crucial green mode of transport that enhance the accessibility of a comprehensive public transportation system. This study explores the relationship between public bicycles and metro and bus services in Taipei by collecting panel data from 319 YouBike 1.0 stations between May 2017 and April 2018. The empirical findings are as follows. (1) The number of passengers exiting a metro station has a significantly positive correlation with YouBike rental volume, and distance from metro station to YouBike station has a significantly negative effect on YouBike rental volume. This finding confirms that YouBike serves a complementary role with respect to the mass transit system. (2) A significant interaction effect exists between number of passengers exiting a metro station and distance to metro station, implying that the scale of metro station exits influences the spatial extent of the station’s effect on YouBike usage. (3) Four bus-related explanatory variables (distance to the nearest bus stop, number of bus stops within a 300-meter radius, number of bus routes at the nearest bus stop, and the interaction term between distance and number of bus routes) did not reach statistical significance. Land use and public transportation conditions in different areas alter the relationships between various modes of transport. In areas farther from metro stations, YouBike and buses exhibit a stronger complementary integration, whereas in areas near metro stations, YouBike and buses likely exhibit a more competitive substitution relationship. (4) Low-volume YouBike stations are less affected by temperature and more affected by number of passengers exiting a station and distance to a metro station.