日本《兒童未來戰略》對少子化危機的應對：政策分析與成效評估

Japan’s“Children’s Future Strategy”in Addressing the Declining Birthrate Crisis: Policy Analysis and Effectiveness Evaluation

日本正面臨嚴重的少子化危機，總和生育率（TFR）於2023年降至1.2，出生人數跌至75.8萬人，2024年只剩72萬人新生兒，導致人口老化與勞動人口縮減。本研究探討日本政府於2023年制定的《兒童未來戰略》，聚焦育兒支援金、托育擴充與職場改革等政策，分析其內容、實施成效與挑戰。研究發現，該策略通過經濟補助與結構性改革略提升生育意願與女性就業率（2023年達53.6%），但受限於財源不穩、職場文化慣性及社會觀念轉變緩慢，成效仍未達預期目標（2040年TFR 1.8）。本研究建議強化財源多元性、立法推動職場平等並增加住房補貼，以實現人口結構改善。此積極的策略與方式，值得進行探討，期望研究結果對於台灣降低少子化問題，解決未來人口結構調整方式，可以做為借鏡之用。

Japan is confronting a severe declining birthrate crisis, with the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropping to 1.2 in 2023 and the number of births falling to 758,000, further decreasing to 720,000 newborns in 2024. This trend has exacerbated population aging and a shrinking labor force. This study examines Japan’s Children’s Future Strategy, formulated in 2023, focusing on policies such as childcare subsidies, expanded daycare services, and workplace reforms. It analyzes the content, implementation outcomes, and challenges of these initiatives. The findings reveal that while the strategy has slightly increased fertility intentions and women’s employment rates (reaching 53.6% in 2023) through economic support and structural reforms, its effectiveness remains constrained by unstable funding, entrenched workplace cultural norms, and slow societal shifts. Consequently, the policy falls short of its target TFR of 1.8 by 2040. This study recommends enhancing funding diversification, legislating workplace equality, and increasing housing subsidies to achieve sustainable improvements in population structure. The proactive strategies and approaches adopted warrant further exploration, with the hope that the research findings can serve as a reference for Taiwan in mitigating its own declining birthrate and addressing future population structure adjustments.