美中衝突下臺灣半導體產業發展之研究

A Study of the Development of Taiwan's Semiconductor Industry under the Conflict between the United States and Mainland China

本研究在近年來持續美中衝突下，經有關文獻分析，以及以賽局理論、臺灣半導體產業之產業優勢與地緣政治等進行有關研究分析後，可知在美中持續衝突下，美國應可能會拉大與中國大陸之科技差距。但此結果對全球經濟而言，整體之負面效應大於正面效應，因美中衝突賽局之Nash均衡，不在Pareto最適境界之和平（合作）「雙贏」策略組合，而是在衝突（競爭）之零和策略組合。而從臺灣至美國之半導體供應鏈，因總公司絕大多數仍可能會留在臺灣，此雖可能影響就業機會，但對臺灣總體經濟影響不會太大。不過台積電及有關半導體應鏈廠商所在地之臺灣各縣市，可能因製造與研發工廠移往美國後，影響地方經濟發展。而臺商在美中衝突下可能面臨很大難題，以往兩岸經貿與美臺貿易之模式，也可能面臨巨大調整。至於台積電因先進製程技術優勢，仍無法被其他半導體企業取代，仍保有其近乎「先進製程獨占」之半導體產業技術競爭優勢。因而在美中持續衝突下，雖可能受波及，但影響可能不大。不過，和平仍是對全球經濟發展之最佳解。而大國之競合及其對其他地方之經濟發展等可能影響，此類有關議題未來仍非常值得持續深入研究。

In this study, under the ongoing conflict between the United States and Mainland China in recent years, through analysis of relevant literature, as well as relevant research and analyses based on game theory, the industrial advantages of Taiwan's semiconductor industry, and geopolitics, it can be seen that under the ongoing conflict between the United States and Mainland China, the United States should be likely to widen the technological gap with Mainland China. However, this result has an overall negative effect on the global economy that is greater than a positive effect, because the Nash equilibrium of the conflict between the United States and Mainland China is not the ''win-win'' strategy combination of peace (cooperation) in the Pareto optimal state, but in the conflict (competition) zero-sum strategy combination. As for the semiconductor supply chain from Taiwan to the United States, since the vast majority of the head offices may still stay in Taiwan, although this may affect employment opportunities, it will not have a great impact on Taiwan's overall economy. However, the counties and cities in Taiwan where TSMC and related semiconductor supply chain manufacturers are located may have an impact on local economic development due to the relocation of manufacturing and R&D plants to the United States. Taiwanese businessmen may face great difficulties under the conflict between the United States and Mainland China, and the previous Cross-Strait economic and trade models as well as the United States-Taiwan trade may also face huge adjustments. As for TSMC, due to its advanced process technology advantages, it still cannot be replaced by other semiconductor companies, and it still retains its nearly ''Monopoly of Advanced Process'' technological competitive advantage in the semiconductor industry. Therefore, in the ongoing conflict between the United States and Mainland China, although it may be affected, the impact may not be significant. However, peace is still the best solution to global economic development. As for the competition and cooperation among major powers and its possible impact on the economic development of other places, such related issues are still worthy of continued in-depth study in the future.