A Will to Win: The Role of the Public in Taiwan’s Defensive Military Outlook

Public support is a critical factor in the outcome of interstate conflicts, yet, how it operates, interacts with hard power, or influences the overall military outlook remains surprisingly undertheorized. Public support has been particularly salient for such states as Finland and Ukraine that have faced opponents of vastly greater military size, capability, and sophistication. This paper advances an original theory on the strategic utility of public support for conflict through an analysis of the case of Taiwan, a potential current flashpoint for a great power war. This paper assesses trends in Taiwanese public support for resisting a Chinese invasion over time, identifies a major upswing in the public’s willingness to fight, and argues that further coordination by state and societal actors could deter a Chinese attack or at least greatly increase the costs of an invasion and the likelihood of failure.